Site map
العربية Български 中文 Čeština English Français Deutsch हिन्दी Bahasa Indonesia Italiano Bahasa Malay اردو Polski Português Română Русский Srpski Slovenský Español ไทย Nederlands Українська Vietnamese বাংলা Ўзбекча O'zbekcha Қазақша

InstaForex Client Area

  • Personal settings
  • Access to all InstaForex services
  • Detailed statistics and reports on trades
  • Full range of financial transactions
  • System of managing several accounts
  • Maximum data protection

InstaForex Partner Area

  • Full information on clients and commissions
  • Graphic statistics on accounts and clicks
  • Webmaster instruments
  • Ready-made web solutions and wide range of banners
  • High data protection level
  • Company's news, RSS feeds, and forex informers
Register
cabinet icon

InstaForex – always at the forefront!Open a trading account and become a part of the InstaForex Loprais Team!

Success history of the team headed by Ales Loprais can become your success history! Trade confidently and head towards leadership like regular participant of Dakar Rally and winner of Silk Way Rally InstaForex Loprais Team does it!

Join in and win with InstaForex!

Instant account opening

Get a letter of instructions
toolbar icon

Trading Platform

For mobile devices

For trading via browser

It seems that a single European has used up all its potential to grow. Although weak macroeconomic statistics from the United States were accompanied by a growth in the single European currency, this growth itself was extremely sluggish. And the point is not only that US statistics turned out to be significantly better than forecasts. Now, investors are much more concerned about what is happening on the streets of American cities. And the protests themselves are becoming more and more local in nature. In many cities, the protests begin to disappear altogether, and they recall the nightly clashes with the police as a nightmare. Many attribute this to the introduction of curfews. Nevertheless, it is too early to talk about the complete cessation of street protests. In some cities, the situation continues to be critical, and it has come to the direct threats of Donald Trump, who demanded that the New York authorities "crush" the protesters.Otherwise, he will allegedly do it himself. In any case, it is clear that the protest activity is clearly beginning to decline, which, of course, is a positive factor.

Exchange Rates 04.06.2020 analysis

However, the growth of the single European currency has stopped since the morning, and there was even a slight downward movement after the publication of European statistics. Although in general, European statistics turned out to be noticeably better than forecasts. Thus, the index of business activity in the service sector rose from 12.0 to 30.5, and the composite index from 13.6 to 31.9. The unemployment rate rose from 7.1% to 7.3%, which came as a complete surprise, as they expected growth to 8.1%. But the reason for the weakening of the single European currency was data on producer prices, the decline of which accelerated from -2.8% to -4.5%. And even before the publication of these data in many mass media, reports began to appear that the European Central Bank had no choice but to expand its quantitative easing program.

Producer Prices (Europe):

Exchange Rates 04.06.2020 analysis

On the other hand, American statistics turned out to be significantly better than forecasts, although the dollar still lost its position in the end. Like it or not, the data still showed a further deterioration in the economic situation. Nevertheless, ADP data showed a decline in employment by 2,760 thousand, and not 9,600 thousand, as expected. Moreover, the previous results were revised for the better, and employment decreased in the previous month not by 20,236 thousand, but 19,557 thousand. Of course, we still have to talk about a catastrophic increase in unemployment. However, there are assumptions that everything is not so scary as originally supposed, which means that the crisis will not be so prolonged and perhaps, it will be possible to avoid a new Great Depression. In addition, the volume of factory orders declined not by 16.0%, but by 13.0%. Well, the index of business activity in the service sector grew from 26.7 to 37.5, and a composite index from 27.0 to 37.0. Nevertheless, we are talking about a clear economic recession, which is simply not as widespread as it was initially depicted.

Employment Change from ADP (United States):

Exchange Rates 04.06.2020 analysis

Today, the focus is on the board meeting of the European Central Bank. But before that, retail sales data will be published in Europe, the recession rate of which should accelerate from -9.2% to -24.0% and even the current value is a record, however, it is with negativity. And as you can see from the forecasts, this record can be easily broken. This alone should be enough for a clear weakening of the single European currency. However, these data will not affect the market in any way. Rather, they will only become an excellent illustration of the problems facing the European Central Bank. And today, Christine Lagarde is expected to announce the expansion of the quantitative easing program just because of the clearly increased risks of the European economy slipping into deflation, as well as the need to save the economy. And such actions of the regulator have always negatively affected the movement of the single European currency especially since we are observing its apparent overbought.

Retail Sales (Europe):

Exchange Rates 04.06.2020 analysis

At the same time that Christine Lagarde will speak at a press conference, data on applications for benefits in the United States will be published following the meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank. So today, no one will pay attention to them, and they should not be taken into account. The labor market will be in the spotlight of market participants tomorrow, when the report of the United States Department of labor is published.

From the point of view of technical analysis, you can see a stable upward movement during which the quote managed to touch the level of 1.1250. The total scale of the upward movement over two and a half weeks amounted to more than 300 points, and for all the observation time, only one correction was formed. The existing scale and characteristic speculative interest indicate a high overbought, during which a correction may occur with a minimal change in market sentiment.

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, the daily period, a global downward trend can be seen, in the structure of which there are bursts of activity. The current price change does not violate the integrity of the trend structure, the only thing it can affect is the clock components.

It can be assumed that speculative interest will continue to persist in the market, but the inertial upward movement cannot be eternal, as well as the constant long positions, which should soon go to consolidations. Therefore, with a small change in market sentiment, a correction may occur that will return the quote to the area of 1.1150-1.1100. The area of resistance, which theoretically could become a reference point, is the range of 1.1250/1.1300.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that indicators of technical instruments still signal a purchase due to a rapid upward movement.

Exchange Rates 04.06.2020 analysis

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Dean Leo,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020
Benefit from analysts’ recommendations right now
Top up trading account
Open trading account

InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.

Show more
Close
Widget calback
Our specialist
will call you back
in five minutes
We will navigate you
through the website and
answer all your questions!
Preferred Type of Connection
Preferred language
  • English
  • Русский
  • العربية
  • Bahasa Indonesia
  • Bahasa Melayu
  • বাংলা
  • Български
  • 中文
  • Español
  • हिन्दी
  • Asụsụ Igbo
  • Português
  • اردو
  • ไทย
  • Українська
  • Tiếng Việt
  • Èdè Yorùbá
A call-back request was accepted.
Our specialists will contact you as soon as possible.
An error occurred.
Please try again later.
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.