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Exchange Rates 30.06.2020 analysis

This morning, the stock markets of the Asia-Pacific region are in a positive mood: the rise is observed almost everywhere. The positive dynamics were provided by the stock market of the United States of America, which began to grow the night before. In addition, encouraging statistics on the state of the economy in the countries of the region began to arrive, which also pleased investors.

According to information provided by the State Statistical Office, the PMI index in the processing industry of China for the first month of the summer of this year became larger and reached 50.9 points. It can be recalled that its previous value stopped at around 50.6 points.

The fact that this index is above 50 points is evidence of the growth of business activity in the sector. If it falls below 50 points, then activity disappears. In the current period, the rise took place again, which became the fourth in a row, while up to this point in the last winter month, there was a significant drop, which occurred against the background of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The current positive level was a surprise for experts who, in their preliminary forecasts, argued that the indicator could not rise above 50.4 points, and according to some reports – above 50.5 points.

Now, even more positivity came from the statistics of the service sector. According to the data, the PMI of the services and construction sectors in China jumped significantly in June - to 54.4 points. The previous value was at the level of 53.6 points. This is the fourth consecutive rise after a massive decline. Thus, the indicator has already reached the maximum values recorded in January of this year.

China's Shanghai Composite Index in the morning has already risen by 0.73% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index followed suit, but slightly rose - plus 0.1%.

Statistics from Japan was not so confident. Thus, the unemployment rate in the country over the last month of spring rose to 2.9%, although this indicator was around 2.6% in the previous month. This low level has not been around for more than three years. Of course, unemployment is rising amid the coronavirus pandemic, but no one expected such leaps. According to preliminary data from analysts, the increase should not have been higher than the 2.8% mark. It can be recalled that over the same period last year, unemployment was around 2.4%.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Index gained 1.33% in the morning. The greatest successes in the corporate sector were achieved by investment companies, as well as car and electronics manufacturers.

The South Korean Kospi Index rose 1% in the morning. The economic statistics of the state were also quite good. Retail sales in May were up 4.6%, and in terms of the year, they grew by 1.7%. This came as a complete surprise to experts who claimed that a reduction of 1% and 1.4% would occur.

Australia's S & P/ASX 200 Index jumped 1.42%. Positive emotions were added by the country's chief regulator, who decided to leave the base interest rate unchanged at the lowest historical level of 0.25% for an indefinite period. Following this news, significant growth began to be observed in the banking sector of Australia: the largest banks were able to increase the value of their securities on average from 1% to 2%, and this is not the limit.

The stock indices of the United States of America ended their trading on the rise yesterday. The most rapid of all was the Dow Jones index, which recorded rapid growth in one day, while its total increase per day was greater than the growth for three consecutive weeks. The reason for this positive was the extension of measures to stimulate and maintain economic growth in the state. This was enough to rise, even though the number of new patients with coronavirus continues to increase steadily.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index increased by 2.32%, or 580.25 points, which moved it to a level of 25,595.80 points. Such a significant one-day result has not been seen for a long time.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index also rose by 1.47%, or 44.19 points. Its current level has stopped at around 3 053.24 points.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 1.20%, or 116.93 points, which sent it to 9,874.15 points.

American statistics released last night were very encouraging. Thus, the index showing unfinished transactions for the sale of housing in the country became 44.3% higher in May compared with the previous similar period. At the same time, a serious decline in this indicator was noted in April, and a record rise was recorded in May, which has not been recorded in the entire history of the indicator. Analysts' preliminary forecasts were also much more modest than real numbers. According to them, the growth was to take place no more than 18.9%. However, the index has not yet been able to achieve last year's indicators: relative to May 2019, it is still less by 5.1%.

All this suggests that the country's government still has a lot of work that needs to be done in order for the US economy to begin to return at least to the pre-crisis level. As it turned out, the pace of recovery is much better than previously expected, and if the situation with the second wave of the pandemic does not cover the world, then the state's economy will return to normal earlier than planned.

Of course, such news pleased the stock market participants. Although there is one problem, news was added that almost 40% of the companies included in the S&P 500 index would not be able to release their reports for the current quarter and year on the market, as the next outbreak of COVID-19 made its own adjustments and put the company in an uncertain position.

On the European side, the stock market was also positive yesterday. And even a possible second wave of coronavirus ready to sweep the whole world could not exert pressure.

The overall index of enterprises in the European region Stoxx Europe 600 became higher by the results of yesterday's trading session by 0.44% and reached the level of 359.89 points.

The UK FTSE 100 index rose 1.08%. German DAX index also grew, albeit slightly - by 0.18%. The French CAC Index gained 0.73%. In turn, the Italian FTSE MIB index showed the highest jump - plus 1.69%, while Spain's IBEX 35 Index was up by 1.39%.

According to data released yesterday, the index of business and consumer confidence in the EU economy for the first month of summer was able to reach as much as 75.7 points. This is a significant increase, which was not recorded from the very beginning of the application of the indicator. It can be noted that its May level was at around 67.5 points. However, preliminary expert forecasts were higher than real data, an increase of up to 80 points was expected. Thus, the growth of the index was still a positive moment for investors.

Performed by Maria Shablon,
Analytical expert
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