30.06.202015:16 Calm before the storm: gold prepares to challenge record highs

Long-term review

Exchange Rates 30.06.2020 analysis

The gold rush continues amid the threat of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Last week, the price of gold rose to $ 1,796 per troy ounce, almost reaching the mark that has remained unattainable over the past nine years.

Recall, the IMF has worsened its forecast for the state of the global economy. According to the estimates of a reputable organization, in 2020 world GDP will decline by 4.9%, while earlier it was expected to decrease by only 3%. The blame is on the pandemic that erupted with renewed vigor in the United States and Europe and is also gaining momentum in South America, Asia, and Africa. WHO representatives called the situation "dangerous" and warned that it could worsen due to the lack of global cooperation in this direction.

The growing number of coronavirus cases in the world makes investors nervous and close positions on risky assets, such as stocks, while investing in gold and bonds.

According to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR), over the past week, almost $ 20 billion was received in bond funds. At the same time, funds focused on investments in precious metals raised $ 2.9 billion making it the highest amount since mid-May.

Although the rally of gold stalled, experts do not rule out that in July the precious metal could challenge record highs in the region of $ 1,900.

"After testing new multi-year highs, gold is always consolidating, and this is a good time to buy precious metals before it rises even higher," said Afshin Nabavi, senior vice president of MKS SA.

"There is great uncertainty around the economic recovery in the US, which implies a higher price of gold in the future. The level of $ 1,770 indicates further growth. The next resistance will be $ 1,780 and ultimately $ 1,800, "he added.

According to analysts, gold attracts attention not only amid falling demand for stocks but also due to increased support for economies and markets from governments and central banks, which increases inflationary expectations.

Morgan Stanley, UBS, and JPMorgan Private Bank advise their customers to stock up on gold, allocating at least 10% of their investment portfolio.

Citi strategists have revised their three-month gold forecast upward from $ 1,715 to $ 1,825 an ounce.

"We maintain a bullish attitude towards gold as a protective asset and a hedge against inflation. In 2021, it is possible to update record highs in the region of $ 2,000 per ounce, "they said.

Recall that the current historical maximum is $ 1 920 and was recorded in September 2011.

Performed by Viktor Isakov,
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