The British pound rose in spirit after yesterday's data on the pace of economic recovery after the coronavirus pandemic, which was far from predicted. Today, a report on the UK consumer price index was released, which increased in June this year compared to May, although many feared that this will not be without surprises. Given the fact that most stores and restaurants in the UK were opened in mid-June, the inflationary jump is delayed, however, it is unlikely to remain stable for a longer time, since there are no significant changes in the growth of fuel and food prices. On the contrary, some categories have even declined.
So, consumer prices in June rose by 0.1% compared to May and by 0.6% compared to the same period in 2019 after rising by 0.5% in May. Economists had expected the index to grow by 0.4% in June. As for the basic indicator, which does not take into account volatile prices for food and energy, as well as tobacco products, it rose by 1.4% in June after rising by 1.2% in May. However, despite the growth, inflation is still far from the Bank of England's 2% target.
As for the reaction of the British pound to the news, the bulls managed to get close to the resistance of 1.2615, from which a day earlier there was a larger sell-off. Now it is very important how the trading instrument will manifest itself around this range. On the one hand, the UK government's new bailout plan and expectations of an expansion of the bond purchase program by the Bank of England, as well as lower interest rates. On the other hand, Brexit and the lack of any consensus on negotiations, which can significantly complicate the life of business and the economy in 2021. If an agreement is not reached by the end of the year, the EU will easily introduce full customs control from the beginning of 2021, and this will mean the implementation of a hard Brexit scenario, which will be another blow to the UK economy, which is now struggling to cope with the consequences of the coronavirus.
The Japanese yen managed to strengthen its position after today's speech by the head of the Bank of Japan, who said that if necessary, it will ease monetary policy more, but this is not currently required. Let me remind you that today the Central Bank's leaders left the key rate unchanged at -0.1%, and the target yield on 10-year government bonds is about zero.
During the speech, Kuroda noted that there are some signs of economic recovery, but much will depend on the further situation with the coronavirus. At present, the pace of recovery of the Japanese economy, although not strong, is steady. If necessary, Kuroda once again noted that rates can be lowered if the economic situation worsens. According to the bank's forecast, in the current financial year, core inflation will range from -0.5% to -0.7%. In the long term, the Central Bank's target inflation rate remained unchanged at 2%. However, achieving this level is unlikely to be possible in the next couple of years. The bank emphasized that core inflation should reach 0.7% by March 2023, when the financial year ends in Japan.
As for the technical picture of the USDJPY pair, trading continues in the narrow range of 106.00-108.00 after the unsuccessful attempt of the bulls to get above the level of 108 by the end of May this year. The optimal scenario for trading this instrument will be the opposite trades from the support levels of 106.00 and resistance levels of 108.00 with an intermediate goal in the middle of the channel around 107.50.
