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25.01.202113:46 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis of EUR/USD on January 25. Markets await the result of the Fed's first meeting in 2021

Exchange Rates 25.01.2021 analysis

The wave pattern of the upward trend still has a completed five-wave form. Thus, the current wave marking implies the construction of a new downward trend section. If so, the pair may continue to decline around the 19th and 18th mark. However, it should be recalled that in recent months, demand for the US dollar has been extremely low, so the upward trend may well continue and become more complicated.

Exchange Rates 25.01.2021 analysis

The wave pattern in the smaller time frame also indicates that the section of the upward trend is completed. The estimated wave 5 in 5 is finished. If the low of wave 4 is broken, it may indicate that the pair is ready to form a three-wave downward trend. The first wave of the new section of trend acquired a 5-wave form, while the second one gained a 3-wave. Thus, we can now expect the pair to decline within the supposed third wave.

In terms of news background, all markets' attention is still focused on the United States, despite the fact that the EU summed up the results of the significant ECB meeting last week. However, we should note that not everything that happens in America strongly influences the pair's movement. On the contrary, the markets are just watching how the situation will develop, just like a football match. Christine Lagarde's speeches in 2021 also did not provide any new information. Thus, the markets are paying attention to macroeconomics, realizing that Europe is still behind the US – both in terms of the scale of GDP and its growth or recovery rate. In addition, the US currency has been declining for quite some time and now we need at least a three-wave correction pattern, which can push down the pair by another 200-300 pips.

In this case, it is hard to predict what will happen next. Everything will depend on the Fed's monetary policy and Biden's plan to rescue the US economy. This plan includes an injection of about 1.9 trillion dollars into the economy, which will definitely be printed or created in the accounts of the Treasury and the Fed. This will cause the money supply to increase, which can result in a decline of exchange rate. In short, the US dollar will decline, which is exactly what the United States needs. Despite the fact that Janet Yellen announced that her department would not interfere in the exchange rate setting, this does not mean that America has given up its desire to lower the dollar rate as much as possible. Moreover, many developed countries that often have large exports do not benefit from a high exchange rate of the national currency, as this has a negative impact on volumes. In the case of the US and its huge public debt to service, a cheap dollar is an even more desirable target. Thus, the goals of the US economy are unlikely to change even with a new president.

Conclusion and recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair presumably completed forming the upward trend. Thus, it is now suggested to sell the pair with targets located near the 20th and 19th mark for each new downward signal of the MACD indicator, expecting the formation of wave 3.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021
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