Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair traded in different directions again on Friday, and volatility was low. Thus, in general, it was not the most favorable day for trading. On the other hand, there were no important fundamental events, as well as macroeconomic publications, therefore, technical factors were not hampered by other factors. Basically, the EUR/USD pair only changed its direction once during the whole day. We have an upward trend at our disposal, since the upward trend line remains relevant. Therefore, novice traders had to monitor buy signals on a 30-minute timeframe. During the day, the MACD indicator turned up twice and both of these signals could be safely missed, because the MACD indicator went too far below the zero level. Simply put, there was a high probability of uncorrelation between the price movement and the indicator at the levels where it turned to the upside. That is, the MACD indicator could turn up not because the pair moved up, but because it has nowhere to go further. Moreover, when the indicator gives a signal at such low positions, if it is false, it is very difficult to wait for a reverse reversal in order to manually close trades. Thus, we recommended waiting for signals after discharging to the zero level, but the signals were formed much lower, so they should be passed. But there was a very clear and precise rebound from the 1.1866 level. And this signal could be worked out. After forming this signal, the price went up only 28 points, which was not enough for Take Profit to work, nevertheless, all positions had to be closed before trading ended on Friday, thus, about 20 points were still earned.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
Now let's take a look at the 5-minute timeframe. Several signals were also formed here during the day, and the picture as a whole was much more complex than on the 30-minute timeframe. In principle, all signals were formed during the European session and all of them turned out to be false. The price spent seven hours around the 1.1893 level, surpassing it every half hour. That is, after two false breakthroughs, it was possible to understand that a flat had formed and we no longer had to react to new signals. Also, the 1.1893 level itself has lost its relevance, since the price surpassed it several times. However, it was possible to lose around 10-15 points for the first two false trades. No signal generated in the US trading session.
How to trade on Monday:
We recommend trading on the 30-minute buy timeframe on Monday, as the upward trend continues at the moment. The upward trend line continues to support bullish traders. The MACD indicator is currently slightly above zero, but in any case, it needs to turn down in order to generate a buy signal later. Thus, in any case, you need to wait for a downward correction. It can happen on Monday night. Also, novice traders can trade from 1.1866 and 1.1910 on a rebound or a breakthrough in both directions. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. The levels on the 5-minute timeframe are 1.1867, 1.1862, 1.1912, 1.1927 and 1.1937 can be distinguished, from which rebounds or breakdowns can occur. As before, the main thing is that the signal is clear. If the signal is not clear, then it is better not to enter the market. We only have the report on retail sales in the European Union for February tomorrow.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
