The pound-dollar pair renewed a two-year price high in February, being designated at around 1.4240. But traders stayed at this height for literally one day - the pair interrupted the impulse growth and just as rapidly rushed down, breaking more than 500 points in just a week. It is noteworthy that the GBP/USD pair was able to return to the 40-figure area only two months later. Yesterday, the pair impulsively overcame the support level of 1.4000 and rose another 150 points, stopping at the resistance level of 1.4150. Such a powerful march was due not only to the dollar's weakness, but also to the strengthening of the pound. The prevailing fundamental background contributes to the pair's succeeding growth, so it is only a matter of time before it reaches 1.4200.

The revaluation of the British currency (which is observed not only in tandem with the dollar, but also in cross-pairs) is explained primarily by the position of the British central bank, whose representatives have begun to voice hawkish rhetoric. And here it is necessary to recall that the May meeting of the Bank of England took place last week, following which the central bank left all the parameters of monetary policy unchanged. But at the same time, members of the central bank revised the forecast for GDP growth for the current year upward - from 5% to 7.5%. Also, the forecast estimates for inflation growth in 2021 were revised upwards.

A little later, the deputy head of the Bank of England, Ben Broadbent, allowed a gradual tightening of monetary policy. According to him, for this, the central bank needs "clear signs of a steady recovery in inflation in the direction of the target level." Despite the very vague wording, the pound reacted to these words with active growth throughout the market. The fact is that over the past few weeks, representatives of the Bank of England voiced exclusively dovish rhetoric. For example, Silvana Tenreyro said the week before last that she was skeptical about the growth of inflation indicators. In her opinion, during the general economic recovery, "it is important to distinguish between a steady increase in inflation and temporary volatility." A similar position was voiced by some other representatives of the British central bank. For example, Gertjan Vliege said that "the rate should not be related to the short-term state of the economy."

Ben Broadbent, in contrast to the above-mentioned doves, was optimistic about the growth prospects of the British economy, including in the labor market. However, he added that the underlying effects may distort the data on wage growth in the coming months. But overall, he acknowledged that downside risks have "significantly eased" at the moment. The market took this message as a hawkish signal, especially given the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators. Thus, unemployment in the UK is declining, while the level of average earnings, on the contrary, is consistently growing. Inflation shows a weak, but still growing (in particular, the main consumer price index recovered to 1.1%). Traders were also pleased with the latest report on retail sales in the UK: the March figures came out in the green zone, updating the annual high. This dynamic contributes to the strengthening of hawkish sentiments.

The British currency is also supported by two other factors. The Scottish issue, and the coronavirus factor.

So, the Scottish National Party, which won the local parliamentary elections in Scotland, which lobbies for the independence of the region, in the end failed to get an absolute majority. And although the issue of holding a referendum is still on the agenda, many experts doubt that the leader of the SNP will implement this idea. Let me remind you that in order for the referendum to gain legitimacy (i.e. have legal force), Nicola Sturgeon must get the consent of London. Prime Minister Boris Johnson strongly opposes this idea, referring to the results of the 2014 referendum, when Scots voted against leaving the UK. There is no doubt that this year Johnson will once again refuse to allow Edinburgh to vote.

Apparently, the issue of Scottish independence (or rather, holding a second referendum on this issue) will be considered by the Supreme Court of Great Britain. And according to many media outlets, the judges in this case will side with London. There is also an opinion in the British press that the high-profile topic of the referendum is just a "facade", behind which there is a more subtle political game, which is reduced to bargaining between unionists and Scottish nationalists for new powers and preferences for the region. Whatever it was, in the context of the foreign exchange market, the Scottish issue has ceased to put pressure on the pound, since, according to the general opinion of experts, the probability of holding a second referendum is minimal, despite the results of local elections in Scotland.

The so-called coronavirus factor has also stopped weighing on the pound. In Britain, 30 million people have already been vaccinated (despite the fact that there are 45 million adults in the country), of which more than 15 million have received a second dose of the vaccine. In recent days, less than 2,000 new cases of coronavirus are recorded daily, while at the beginning of the year, the daily figure was at the level of 30-40,000. Against the background of such trends, Downing Street decided to announce the third phase of the easing of coronavirus restrictions. So, from May 17, for the first time in several months, people will be allowed to meet indoors in groups of up to six people or two full families. Pubs, cafes and restaurants will also be opened in the country – now these establishments will be able to receive visitors not only on open terraces, but also in closed rooms, subject to certain rules. Cinemas and sports facilities will also be able to resume their activities.

The British currency is strengthening at the moment, not only against the dollar, but also throughout the market – and, as we see, there are good reasons for this. If tomorrow's data on UK GDP growth (in the first quarter) is released in the green zone, the GBP/USD pair may update this year's high "ahead of schedule ". In any case, long positions on the pair is a priority – this is signaled not only by the foundation, but also by the technique. So, the price is either on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, or between the middle and upper lines on all the higher timeframes (from H4 and higher), which indicates that the upward direction is prioritized. On the timeframes from H4 to W1 (that is, except for the monthly chart), the Ichimoku indicator has formed a bullish Parade of Lines signal, when the price is above all the lines of the indicator, including the Kumo cloud. This signal also indicates bullish sentiment. The nearest target of the upward movement in the medium term is the mark of 1.4240 - this year's high, which coincides with the upper line of the indicator on the monthly chart.