Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair continued ultra-complex movements on Wednesday, with a bunch of pullbacks and corrections within the day, along with false signals, and so on. Novice traders once again had to turn on all their wit in order not to get big losses in this cycle. By the way, there were no macroeconomic reports and fundamental events during today, and the movement on the hourly timeframe looks quite normal. The problems start when we pay attention to the 5-minute timeframe... But explanations about everything in order. The upward trend continues to persist on the 30-minute timeframe, thanks to the upward trend line. And so it was still necessary to only consider buy signals, of which as many as one was formed during the day. And even that one was formed much below the zero level, so it should not have been worked out. Thus, another trading day on the 30-minute chart without strong signals from the MACD indicator.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
Now let's take a look at the 5-minute timeframe. There were six generated signals, most of which were inaccurate and generally difficult to interpret. The first sell signal was formed after the pair went beyond 1.2242. Here, novice traders had to open short positions. Next, the euro/dollar pair began to dance around the level of 1.2242. The price settled above this level several times, then below it. It's good that all these consolidations were minimal. The Stop Loss did not have time to trigger the short position, in general, the price did not settle above the 1.2242 level in an assured manner, so the short transaction should not be closed. By and large, it was not even necessary to open it, since the level of 1.2230 was just below the level of 1.2242, from which there was a high probability of a rebound. It was better to open short positions after surpassing the level of 1.2230, but this did not provide as much help for novice traders. Because the next sell signal in the form of a breakthrough of the level of 1.2230 also turned out to be false, as well as the next buy signal near the level of 1.2230. In the end, what do we have? At the very first signal, either it was not necessary to open short positions, and if they were still open, then the deal closed at breakeven, since the price eventually went down by 15 points. The fourth signal should have been worked out with a short position, but this trade turned out to be unprofitable -11 points. The fifth signal should not have been worked out, because the level of 1.2242 was close. The sixth – also should not have been worked out, because the two previous signals near the level of 1.2230 were false. Total: -11 points. It is good that trading on the pound/dollar pair was much more successful. We will review this pair tomorrow morning.
Trading tips for Thursday:
There is still a clear upward trend on the 30-minute timeframe, so it is recommended to continue to consider long positions. The MACD indicator is currently much lower than the zero level, so now you need to wait until it rises back to it and only after that will you be able to count on a strong buy signal. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels of 1.2159, 1.2181 and 1.2266. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss to break even when the price passes in the right direction 15-20 points. The target at the 5M TF can be the nearest level, as long as it is not too close or too far away. If it is located, then you should act on the situation. No important events planned in the European Union, and several rather important reports will be published in the United States. Among them, the report on GDP for the first quarter and the report on orders for long-term goods, which can cause a reaction from market participants.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
