Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair was trading with a slight upward bias on Wednesday. However, since this bias has been persistent for several consecutive days now, today we even managed to form an upward trend line. The entire upward movement cannot be called strong, nevertheless, if the price does not settle below the trend line tomorrow, then it will finally be possible to use the MACD indicator in trading on the 30-minute timeframe. Today, the price changed its direction of movement twice, and volatility was low again. Thus, even on the 30-minute timeframe, it is clear that today was not the most favorable day for working with the pair. Several macroeconomic reports were also published during the day: business activity indices in services and manufacturing in the European Union and America. In the chart below, the ticks mark the time when this data was published. As you can see, traders did not particularly react to these reports. And the reports themselves were far from the most important.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
There was also a rather complex movement with complex trading signals on the 5-minute timeframe. At the beginning of the European session, the pair's quotes went beyond the level of 1.1924, which was then updated to the level of 1.1921. Thus, novice traders could open long positions here. The price, however, did not immediately reach the nearest level of 1.1943. Before doing this, it once again dropped to the 1.1924 level and bounced off it. But since the Stop Loss at breakeven was not placed on a long position, it should have been kept open until the price settled below the 1.1924 level, which did not happen. Then the price reached the level of 1.1943 and bounced off it. Therefore, novice traders could manually close long positions in a profit of about 10 points. And to open short positions on the signal of a rebound from the level of 1.1943, which turned out to be false, since the price did not continue to move down, and subsequently crossed the level of 1.1943. Thus, one could lose around 10 points on the second deal. Since the price crossed the 1.1943 level several times, novice traders should no longer have to reopen long positions. And the very last signal about surpassing the level of 1.1943 from top to bottom should not have been worked out any more, given how many false signals were generated during the day. At the end of the day, we removed the levels 1.1924 and 1.1943 and added the levels 1.1912 and 1.1970.
Trading tips for Thursday:
An upward trend has formed on the 30-minute timeframe, which is now supported by an upward trend line. Thus, we advise novice traders to consider buy signals from the MACD indicator. At this time, this indicator is just discharging to the zero level. If the price remains above the trend line, then it will be possible to trade for an increase on these signals. If the price breaks the trend line, then it will be possible to sell the pair. It is recommended to trade from the levels 1.1912, 1.1921, 1.1970 and 1.1988 on the 5-minute timeframe. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act on the situation. On Thursday, there will be nothing interesting in the European Union, and at first glance, important reports will be published in the United States, but in reality there may be no reaction to them or it will be very weak. We are talking about reports on GDP for the first quarter and orders for durable goods.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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