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21.10.202111:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Energy crisis to deepen?

Exchange Rates 21.10.2021 analysis

On Wednesday, gas futures for November delivery in Europe soared by over 5%, settling at $1,040 per 1,000 cubic meters. During early trading on Thursday, the price gained 1%. Dutch TTF Gas futures opened at $1,1275.5 per 1,000 cubic meters and climbed to $1,132.8 later.

When determining the dynamic of futures, the settlement price of the previous trading day is usually considered. Yesterday, trading closed at $1,119.1 per 1,000 cubic meters, while the settlement price was at $1,120.9.

At the moment of writing, natural gas futures are at the level of 5,131.

Exchange Rates 21.10.2021 analysis

Gas prices in Europe have recently been growing exponentially. In the summer, the settlement price of Dutch TTF Gas futures was $515 per 1,000 cubic meters. By the end of September, this figure doubled. On October 6, natural gas hit an all-time high of $ 1,937 per 1,000 cubic meters. Later, however, global energy prices went down.

The energy crisis in Europe emerged due to an insufficient amount of raw materials in Europe's underground storage facilities and supply shortages. The situation is exacerbated by the high demand for liquefied natural gas in Asia.

Saxo Bank's Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen is convinced that natural gas will continue to be a very expensive commodity. On the one hand, gas reserves in the EU were steadily growing in recent weeks. Obviously, in case of normal weather conditions this winter, the current volume of gas in storage facilities will be enough to provide Europe with heat throughout the entire season.

On the other hand, due to climate changes, it is impossible to predict how frosty the next 3-4 months might be. If taking into account the low level of energy generated from renewable sources and unusually low temperatures, it becomes clear why the EU government, as well as experts, are worried. That is why Ole Hansen is so sure that natural gas prices will remain high for a long time.

However, officials from the European Commission do not agree with this statement. Despite all the frenzy, they continue to convince the public that nothing threatens the EU's energy supply and prices will stabilize by April 2022.

At the same time, Hansen says factories could shut down from gas shortages, which could lead to widespread factory closures as demand would outstrip supply.

Andreeva Natalya,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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