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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: upside invalidated, new sell-off in play
time 30.11.2022 05:39 PM
time Relevance up to, 01.12.2022 05:39 PM

The EUR/USD pair crashed in the last hour and now is trading at 1.0342 at the time of writing far below the 1.0399 today high. The Dollar Index rallied, that's why the pair is dropping like a rock.

Fundamentally, the Euro-zone and the US data came in mixed today. Eurozone CPI Fash Estimate came in worse than expected while Core CPI Flash Estimate came in line with expectations. On the other hand, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change indicator was reported at 127K below the 196K expected. In addition, Goods Trade Balance, Prelim Wholesale Inventories, and Chicago PMI came in worse than expected as well.

Still, the greenback rallied as the US Prelim GDP rose by 2.9% exceeding the 2.8% growth expected, JOLTS Job Openings came in at 10.33M above 10.24M expected, while Pending Home Sales dropped only by 4.65% versus the 5.8% drop expected.

EUR/USD False Breakout!

This image is no longer relevant

As you can see on the H1 chart, the rate registered only a false breakout through the 1.0394 static resistance and now it has turned to the downside. It challenges the 1.0330 static support.

You knew from my previous analysis that after dropping below the uptrend line, the EUR/SUD pair signaled exhausted buyers.

EUR/USD Forecast!

A valid breakdown below 1.0330 and a new lower low activates a deeper drop and brings new selling opportunities. The 1.0226 lower low is seen as a potential downside target.

Ralph Shedler,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2023
EURUSD
Euro vs US Dollar
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