Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
EUR/USD reaching 1.0689 led to a buy signal in the market. Coincidentally, the MACD line was just starting to move above zero, so the pair rose by 35 pips. It hit 1.0725, where sellers became active and worked for a rebound. As such, a correction of about 20 pips took place.
Although business activity and composite PMI in the Euro area showed a slight decrease in growth, it was not as worrisome as the UK, which is one step away from recession. Still, there was no rally in EUR/USD because the speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde did not mention anything new. In the afternoon, reports on similar indices in the US did not help the dollar as they almost coincided with the forecasts of economists.
Today, data on Germany's GDP will be released, followed by the speeches of ECB members Fabio Panetta and Philip Lane. If both continue to criticize the actions of the central bank, then it is quite possible that the euro will make another attempt to grow. In the afternoon, data on orders for durable goods and the speech of FOMC member Lael Brainard will be ignored by the market as most will focus on the minutes of the Fed's May meeting. Traders will certainly try to find hints of more aggressive actions by the central bank, that is, further increase in interest rates at upcoming meetings. If there are not, pressure on dollar will continue, while risk appetite will grow.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0721 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0779 (thicker green line on the chart). There is a chance for a rally today, but only after very good data on Germany and speeches by ECB representatives. Nevertheless, make sure that when buying, the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.0687, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0721 and 1.0779.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0687 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0624. Pressure will return if there is no bullish activity in the market after good statistics from Germany. However, note that when selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0721, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0687 and 1.0624.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
