During the last trading day, bitcoin continued to trade with minimal volatility for itself, showing no particular desire to either grow or fall. Recall that such a movement is observed after the next round of the downtrend. If you rewind a little time ago and look at the penultimate round of the fall, then immediately after it, the price was also in a frank flat for almost four weeks. Thus, it seems that Bitcoin is now preaching exactly this kind of movement: a collapse, then a few weeks of weak correction, or flat. Therefore, it's time to expect a new collapse now.
It should be noted that in any market and for any instrument, there are always chances to move in the direction that most experts and traders do not look. When the pandemic started and bitcoin shot up, many did not understand why this was happening. Only later did it become clear that the central banks of the world began to print money and create it on their accounts at an appalling rate, and this money began to settle in various markets, partly in bitcoin. Therefore, it is impossible to completely dismiss the option of possible new growth of the first cryptocurrency in the world. But if we still rely on the fundamental background in our conclusions, it is still very difficult for us to count on strengthening the "bitcoin." The Fed and many other central banks around the world continue to tighten their monetary policies, and some have also started QT programs – that is, the withdrawal of excess money supply (which provoked crazy inflation around the world) from the economy. All these are "hawkish" measures, which means they do not stimulate the markets to grow in any way.
On the contrary, they cool the economy. And over the past few weeks or months, the situation has not changed. Therefore, we continue to expect a new drop in BTC.At the same time, experts from the Ark Invest fund, managed by the notorious Katie Wood, said that bitcoin could grow by 240% in the near future. They justified their forecast quite simply: bitcoin has fallen to the 200-week moving average line for the seventh time in its history and may bounce off it. We would treat such forecasts with a fair amount of skepticism. If the instrument has bounced off the resistance six times, it does not mean it will constantly bounce off it. Rather, on the contrary. Ark Invest's statement looks like an attempt to generate artificial demand for bitcoin.
In the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes for "bitcoin" continue to be below $ 24,350. Thus, the target for a new fall is now at the level of $12,426. Three times the "bitcoin" tried to overcome the $ 18,500 (127.2% Fibonacci) but has not yet managed to do so. We believe there are still no technical grounds for growth, and the rate of 5-10 thousand dollars per coin will become a reality in 2022. A rebound from $24,350 is a new signal for sales, and consolidation below $18,500 will confirm this signal.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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