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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin reached $25k but rolled back: what to expect this week?
time 15.08.2022 12:41 PM
time Relevance up to, 16.08.2022 11:14 AM

Bitcoin spent the weekend with the maximum benefit and, at the moment, reached $25k. This became possible due to the successful completion of the trading Friday and the subsequent decrease in sellers' activity. As a result, a situation formed on the Bitcoin daily chart when the price tested the $25k resistance level four times in five days. The cryptocurrency managed to break through the $25k level. However, a large cluster of sell orders above the round level forced BTC/USD to fall over $25,000. Despite the local victory of the bears, there is no doubt that the more often Bitcoin tests the $25k level, the faster it will break through.

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The positive weekend gave way to a Monday depression sponsored by the Asian markets. As a result, the bearish pressure increased significantly, and Bitcoin began to decline toward the local support level of $24k. The $24.5k–$25k area is the main resistance level at the current stage of the Bitcoin price movement. Despite the five-day assault on the upper border, the bulls failed to break through the defense of the bears and, according to all canons, the price will test the support level. Given the presence of a local upward trend on the BTC daily chart, most likely, it will be the $23.6k–$24k area.

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Technical indicators confirm the price movement to the lower border of the current fluctuation channel. The Stochastic Oscillator has formed a bearish crossover and is starting to decline towards 40. The Relative Strength Index has also turned down. At the same time, the MACD indicator continues to move flat, which indicates a low potential for the current price decline. Most likely, the fall will continue until the opening of the US markets, where the price will not be allowed to go below the current buying cluster by $23.6k–$24k. The current decline can be regarded as a local correction after the breakdown of a series of bearish tops.

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At the same time, on the daily chart, we see signs of a gradual exhaustion of the upward trend, which originates from the formation of a local bottom at the end of June. We see the jump structure of the upward trend, which once again confirms the thesis about the growth of Bitcoin on positive news and not due to fundamental factors. On July 3–7, we saw signs of the upward potential of the cryptocurrency and a retest of the $22k level. Starting from July 13 to 19, the price resumed its upward movement and made a bullish breakout of the $22k level. Subsequently, we again saw a correction and another breakdown of the $23.5k mark.

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However, the upward movement from August 5–12 indicates a decrease in the upward potential of the cryptocurrency. If we compare the volumes of purchases and the targets achieved with previous periods of growth, we can conclude that Bitcoin buyers have finally run out of steam. The price gradually hits the ceiling in the form of $25k, and BTC becomes flat. In the near future, Bitcoin needs to hold the $23.5k–$24k level to maintain the bullish potential and structure of the June 19 upward trend.

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In general, the situation looks expected after the decline in trading activity over the weekend. Despite a certain thaw, the market is still in the crypto winter stage, and Bitcoin will need some time to restore investment activity. That is why, bulls need to keep the $23.5k–$24k level for the next two days. The shaky position of Bitcoin indicates the fact that the market is just beginning a recovery period, and the fundamental value of BTC is currently in doubt among institutionalists.

Artem Petrenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2022
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