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Forex Analysis & Reviews: US Premarket on October 7: US stock markets froze in anticipation of reports
time 07.10.2022 01:07 PM
time Relevance up to, 08.10.2022 01:07 PM

Futures on US stock indices are trading near the opening level of the day after yesterday's sharp decline due to fears that the US labor market once again painlessly survived September, keeping the economy in excellent shape. Investors are also waiting for the latest payroll report, which will provide clues about the trajectory of monetary policy in the near future, as many Federal Reserve officials continue to deny stopping rate hikes next year.

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Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3%, offsetting deeper losses amid a pre-sale decline in semiconductor stocks. Futures for the S&P 500 index are trading near zero, as is the industrial Dow Jones.

US bond yields are nearing a 10-week high - the longest streak of gains since 1984, as the Fed insists on a further decisive fight against inflation despite recent data indicating a cooling economy. As noted above, against this background, investors are vacillating between hopes for an end to monetary policy tightening by March next year and fears of a deep recession, which such a reversal will emphasize.

Caution remains ahead of the US employment report. Given the repeated hawkish comments of Fed policymakers, today's data may be enough to sustain further aggressive policy support.

The main Stoxx 600 index in Europe was almost unchanged after a two-day decline.

Investors are also starting to pay attention to the first reports of companies for the 3rd quarter of this year. In addition to the disappointing report from the European oil company Shell, bad data from AMD, and South Korean Samsung Electronics Co., fears about the onset of a recession in the global economy are increasing.

As noted above, the US employment report will put everything in its place: according to forecasts, employers added another 255,000 jobs in September. It is also expected that the unemployment rate will remain at around 3.7%, slightly above a fifty-year low.

As for the hawkish comments of the Fed representatives yesterday, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that the key rate is likely to be at 4.5-4.75% by next spring. Moreover, Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed said that the central bank is still very far from suspending its campaign to raise rates.

US crude futures rose to $89 per barrel, the biggest weekly jump since March this year.

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As for the technical picture of the S&P500, after yesterday's decline, the market took a pause. Trading below $3,773 creates some difficulties for a further bullish rally. The bulls will expect a second spurt to $3,773 after strong data on the US economy, leaving hope for a further upward correction. The breakdown of $3,773 will support a new upward momentum, already aimed at the resistance of $3,801. The furthest target will be in the area of $3,835. In the case of a downward movement, the bulls will declare themselves in the area of $7,735. But a breakdown of this range will quickly push the trading instrument to $3,706 and $3,677 and open up the possibility of updating support at $3,648. Below this range, you can bet on a larger sell-off of the index to a minimum of $3,608, where the pressure may ease a little.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2022
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