10.03.201709:51 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Global macro overview for 10/03/2017

Long-term review

Global macro overview for 10/03/2017:

As widely anticipated the European Central Bank has left the interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.0% again. The deposit facility rate, marginal lending facility, and asset purchase target were left unchanged as well. In his statement at the ECB press conference, Mario Draghi said that risks to the region's economic outlook are now less pronounced and the main message was that overall downside risks had eased. He reiterated that underlying inflation remains subdued and that the central bank will look through transient changes in inflation. The 2017 CPI inflation forecast was increased to 1.7% from 1.3% while the 2018 projection was raised to 1.6% from 1.5% while there was no change to the 2019 forecast at 1.7%.The latest ECB staff projections showed an increase in the 2017 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% from 1.7% with the 2018 forecast also upgraded by 0.1% to 1.7% with no change for 2019. In conclusion, a rather dovish Draghi statement and dovish press conference except the inflation projections suggest that the ECB does not plan to cut the interest rates below 0.0% any time soon.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H1 time frame. The comments from Draghi made the price to break out of the falling wedge. The yesterday's high was established at the level of 1.0614 and since then the price has been slowly drifting into a sideways market. No important high or low was violated and the market is still trading inside of the range between the technical support at the level of 1.0524 and technical resistance at the level of 1.0639.

Exchange Rates 10.03.2017 analysis

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Sebastian Seliga,
Analytical expert
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