JPMorgan: coronavirus pandemic to end soon
According to the calculations of JPMorgan, the end of the COVID-19 pandemic is already in sight. Analysts think that it will ebb away completely within two months.
JPMorgan experts are optimistic about future prospects as they are betting on impressive vaccination results. The mass vaccination is expected to curb the spread of the virus across the world thus reducing the number of new cases. Therefore, the pandemic is likely to end in late March-early April 2021. Marko Kolanovic, the head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy at JPMorgan Chase, believes that a decline in the number of new cases and vaccination progress are the main factors that will eventually put an end to the pandemic. However, health experts and epidemiologists, including ones from the European Commission, have the opposite opinion on this matter. They predict that the pandemic will go away only at the end of summer.
Health experts argue that the new strain of coronavirus originated in the UK is the main obstacle to the global economic recovery. Some virologists even assume that the new variant may have resistance to antibodies and to vaccines, which stimulate the immune system. If so, the world will face another surge in the number of new cases and an increase in the death toll. Therefore, many experts are not in a hurry to make any predictions whatsoever. Yet, most forecasts are negative. Experts do not exclude the fourth wave of coronavirus during the spring. However, JPMorgan is sure that thanks to vaccination, natural immunity, seasonality, and other factors, the new wave of the virus will be manageable. The UK strain of the virus will not affect the reduction or increase of the disease activity, the bank points out.
According to Marko Kolanovic, the impact of vaccination on the epidemic is huge. Thanks to immunization, the coronavirus will go down in 40-70 days. Other experts think that JPMorgan offers a rosy scenario, overlooking many factors. For instance, vaccination progress may be undermined by the weak social distancing measures, disrupted supply of vaccines, differences in vaccination rates between countries, and social inequality in a number of regions.