Europe risks running out of natural gas this winter, Bloomberg reported. 

According to a consultant at Wood Mackenzie Ltd, it could happen if Russian supplies through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline stop completely.

If Russia halts natural gas deliveries to Germany totally, Europe will fail to reach the storage levels ordered by the European Union by the start of the heating season in November. The region may run out of stocks already by January. Therefore, rationing of demand for natural gas may become a reality.

A new spike in gas prices came when Russian giant Gazprom cut supplies to Italy, Germany, France, and Austria. The capacity of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline had to be curbed because of issues with the repair of turbines produced by Siemens AG. Germany instantly accused Russia of aiming at unsettling markets, saying the reduction was “politically motivated.” 

If Russia stops oil supplies to Europe, the region will fail to fill its storage sites by 80% by November 1, the target set by the EU. 

In this case, the region’s storage levels will total just 59% by November 1. If the pipeline runs at 40% of its capacity, storage sites will be 67% full, with a high risk of inventory depletion by the end of winter. 

However, should the pipeline return to operations at full capacity, Europe’s storage levels could reach 80% by November 1, even amid a prolonged halt of Freeport LNG, a US gas liquefaction plant.

Notably, owing to LNG supplies from the United States, Europe is able to offset cuts in Russian gas imports. The EU managed to almost fully recover to historical gas storage levels by summer even despite a voluntary ban on Russian energy imports.

The fact is that these are the anti-Russian sanctions that have triggered immense gas-price volatility. Slashed Russian energy imports and narrowing global LNG supply are likely to lead to a higher need for storage, which could grow further depending on weather conditions.