For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a low volatility of 69 points, but this small amplitude was enough to keep the bearish interest. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that, as predicted, the downward interest remained, reaching the first level of 1.2920 and fixing below it. On the other hand, information and news background had statistics about Britain, where at first glance, it seems that things are not so bad. Unemployment in March is declining from 3.9% to 3.8%, but at the same time, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in April is increasing from 22.6K to 24.7. Meanwhile, the indicators on the average wage, including premiums for March from 3.5% to 3.2%, which together gives a negative background for the English currency and the same decline. Returning to the background information, we have the meeting between Theresa May and opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn yesterday, where the Prime Minister announced that the agreement with the European Union on Brexit's conditions will be put to a vote by the House of Commons in early June - "regardless of whether you can gain support Laborites or not. " Jeremy Corbyn himself expressed doubt that Theresa May would be able to achieve inter-party agreement. Moreover, a number of conservatives are opposed to it.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have the publication of retail sales statistics in the United States, which are expected to show an acceleration in their growth rates from 3.6% to 3.8%. Thus, this news may contribute to the further strengthening of the US currency.
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that there is an active downward interest in the market, although there is currently a slight stagnation. In case of price fixing lower than 1.2900, we will open the way to the second predicted level of 1.2880, which displays the boundaries of the previously formed local minimum on April 25.
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a downward interest against the general background of the market in the short, intraday and medium term.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(May 15, based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 13 points. Since stagnation is taking place now, volatility shows an extremely low figure, but as soon as the stagnation subsides, we will see acceleration.
Zones of resistance: 1.2920 *; 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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