- Analysis of volumes for the ETHUSDT instrument from the Binance exchange.
- Analysis of the long-term trend.
- Analysis of the medium-term trend.
- Analysis of the short-term trend.
- Japanese candlestick analysis.
- Conclusions.
- Statistics.
1. Analysis of volumes for the ETHUSDT instrument from the Binance exchange.
This analysis uses data on horizontal volumes from the Binance exchange on daily charts. It is carried out on the basis of the "Footprint-Profile" theory, in which the movement of the level of the maximum horizontal volume per day can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The maximum volume level is the level at which the maximum number of transactions was made, that is, the level of a large player. Accordingly, the upward movement of the maximum volume levels indicates an upward trend. A downward movement of the maximum volume level indicates a downward trend. Chaotic movement of the maximum volume levels indicates a flat in the market.
05/15/21 - Maximum horizontal volume level (POC - Point Of Control) - 3895
05/16/21 - Maximum horizontal volume level (POC - Point Of Control) - 3490
The POC moved down, the price is below the POC level. There is a downward movement in the market, so you can sell.
2. Analysis of the long-term trend.
A trend is a friend of a trader. Many traders know this saying but don't know how to use it. The answer is simple: trade only in the direction of the trend. This way your trades will have more profit potential with less risk. According to classical Dow theory, there are three main trends:
- long-term;
- medium-term;
- short-term.
It is all these trends that need to be analyzed before opening any deal. This is what we will do in this analysis.
The long-term trend in this analysis is the daily trend. Deals will be executed on the daily timeframe and held for several days. The analysis of the daily trend is carried out using the EMA (48) - an exponential moving average with a period of 48. If the daily candlestick closes above the EMA (48), then we have an upward trend in front of us and we should buy. If the daily candlestick closes below the EMA (48), then the trend is downward and we should sell.
The price is above the EMA (48). The long-term trend is upward, so buying is worth considering in this situation.
3. Analysis of the medium-term trend.
In this analysis, the medium-term trend will be the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). EMA (48), an exponential moving average with a period of 48, will also be used for this analysis. If the H4 candlestick closes above the EMA (48), then the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H4 candlestick closes below the EMA (48), then the trend is downtrend and you should sell.
The price is below the EMA (48). Medium-term trend is downward, so you can sell.
4. Analysis of the short-term trend.
A short-term trend that can show the point of entry into the market well is a trend on the H1 timeframe. We will be helped by the EMA (48) - an exponential moving average with a period of 48. If the H1 candlestick closes above the EMA (48), then the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H1 candlestick closes below the EMA (48), then the trend is downward and you should sell.
The price is below the EMA (48). The short-term trend is downward, so you can sell. Long-term, medium-term, and short-term trends do not coincide.
5. Japanese candlestick analysis.
Classic Japanese candlestick analysis is applied to the daily timeframe. In this analysis, we will also analyze the daily candlestick.
The daily candlestick closed downward, the candlestick is black. The low is below the low of the previous candle. Candlestick configuration - Trend candlestick, large body, small shadows. In terms of the candlestick analysis, you can sell.
6. Conclusions.
- Volume analysis - SELL.
- Long-term trend - BUY.
- Medium-term trend - SELL.
- Short-term trend - SELL.
- Japanese candlestick analysis - SELL.
General conclusion: On May 17, 2021, you can buy and sell, since different types of analysis give different forecasts.
7. Statistics.
To analyze the effectiveness of this approach, statistics are kept on completed transactions. Forecasts and transactions are made in four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCH/USD. The yield is 9% for 3 months with a maximum drawdown of 4.88%. Statement:
I do not open new transactions on Ethereum if there is uncertainty in the market.
Risk per trade is 1% of the deposit. For new trades, the stop loss is located behind the daily extreme point. We do not set the take profit, since we will accompany the transaction by moving the stop loss beyond the extreme points of the upcoming sessions.
Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.
Trade with the trend and you will gain profits!
