22.04.2021: Oil enters correction amid rising stockpiles (Brent, WTI, USD/RUB, EUR/RUB).

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Yesterday, the ruble and the Russian stock market rebounded slightly after the speech of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Investors were encouraged by an improvement in the social and economic state of the country. However, this could be short-term support for the ruble. It is also important to take into account oil prices that significantly influence the state of the Russian budget. So, we will also focus on oil that has been declining for several days now. The published data on oil inventories in the US has negatively affected Brent and WTI quotes. So, at the moment we can see a decline in oil benchmarks. Will it influence the Russian stock market? Let’s see. Today, oil looks much weaker compared to the previous week. Thus, Brent lost 0.5% to trade at 65 dollars per barrel. Apart from rising crude stockpiles in the US, oil is pressured by the third coronavirus wave. All these factors have put the oil’s rally on halt and could reverse the current uptrend. Meanwhile, Brent is holding in the range of 65.50 to 63.50 dollars a barrel. WTI crude is staying in the channel between 62.50 and 59.0 dollars a barrel. In the morning session, WTI was trading at 61.00 dollars a barrel which is 4 dollars less than Brent. The reason for this might be an increase in oil output in the US which is not bound by the OPEC restrictions that apply to the European market. The ruble has recently met a lot of obstacles, including the geopolitical factor. The anticipated interest rate hike by the Central Bank of Russia may slightly improve the situation. Besides, a sliding US dollar index may be beneficial to the ruble. Today, the dollar/ruble pair has settled at 76.60 and is expected to stay in the area of 75.50 – 77.50 rubles per dollar. The euro/ruble pair reached the level of 92.10 with an expected range of 91.00 and 92.80 rubles per euro. The euro has advanced against the greenback by 3% since early April. Today’s meeting of the European Central Bank should confirm the current monetary policy aimed at stimulating the EU economy. Therefore, markets are waiting for the regulator's decision to see the reaction of the euro. The decisions of the ECB on its monetary policy and the new jobs report in the US are the major events to influence the market sentiment today. The released data will determine the position of the Russian currency against the euro and the US dollar. As for the commodities market, oil currently sees no supporting factors and is predicted to start a downward correction.

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