For the last trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed a high volatility of 67 points, as a result of having a pulse jump in the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the level of the cluster 1.1180 played an excellent role as temporary support, slowing down the quotation and subsequently issuing a pulse course of more than 100 points. Considering the trading schedule in general terms, we see that due to the information flow, the inertial descending move came to naught, eventually returning the quote to the levels where it all began. Has the trend changed? - Of course not, we are still in a long-term downward trend, and the current wobble, to be sure, is speculative against the background of a recent event.
We turn to the information and news background, where the key event of the previous day was the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations. Now, in order, the key rate, naturally, was left at the same level of 2.5%, which was more interesting, since it was the subsequent press conference with Jeromy Powell. The Fed chief said that growing economic uncertainty and lower expected inflation made the Fed understand that they could lower the base rate this year. The reduction can be a total of 0.5%, that is, two cuts by the end of the year, 0.25 + 0.25.
The rate cut has been talked about for a long time, and in some respects the market was ready for such steps, but where without speculative interest, as a result, the American currency flowed on all fronts.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have practically nothing; the only thing that can be singled out is the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, where they expect a slight decrease. Most likely, in the absence of news, there will be a kind of reflection on yesterday's report.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that the bays in long positions are continuing, and they carry only speculative interest, locally warming up the currency. Overheating is already clearly felt, and as soon as we reach the limit, the reverse process of recovery can go, which will be completely logical. The points of resistance that traders are currently considering are 1.1300 - 1.1350.
Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- Speculators have been working on the purchase at the time of Jerome Powell's statements, now there is a process of profit taking with reference points 1.1300 - 1.1350. Any further move will be considered already in the case of a clear fixation higher than 1.1350, but you need to stop before that.
- Positions for sale are considered in terms of the recovery process. Here, traders are waiting for a slowdown at smaller TF relative to current points.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short, intraday and medium term, have an upward interest against the background of a jump.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(June 20 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 77 points, which is a very high value for a given time interval. The volatility jump still reflects a recent event, where there is a characteristic speculative interest.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1180 *; 1.1112; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **
* Periodic level
** Range Level
