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23.09.2021 01:36 PM
GBP/USD: plan for the US session on September 23 (analysis of morning deals). Buyers of the pound are preparing an attack on weekly highs.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.3649 and recommended that you decide on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. Unfortunately, the breakthrough of this range did not lead to the formation of a signal to open long positions in the first half of the day. Since just a couple of points were missing before this level's reverse test, trading against the trend without clear confirmation of signals is not the best idea. Therefore, I missed this upward movement. In the second half of the day, the technical picture has changed slightly, and the market may continue its growth as the Bank of England's monetary policy meeting results are waiting for us ahead. If the situation with the participants' votes changes towards those in favor of curtailing the program for buying bonds, the British pound has every chance of continuing to grow. The formation of a false breakout in 1.3654 forms a signal to open long positions in the continuation of the upward correction in the expectation of a break or at least a stop of the September bearish trend. A breakout and a reverse test of the level of 1.3696 from top to bottom will form an additional entry point into long positions, counting on the continuation of the pound's growth already to the maximum of 1.3727, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target will be the area of 1.3763. If the pressure on GBP/USD continues in the afternoon, the Bank of England meeting will be held quite calmly, and the bulls will not show anything in the support area of 1.3654, it is best not to risk long positions against the trend. The optimal scenario will be the purchase of the pound from the level of 1.3615. I advise you to open long positions in GBP/USD immediately for a rebound in the area of 1.3575 with the aim of an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The initial task of the bears is to protect the resistance of 1.3696, which they risk missing in the event of a sharp change in the course of the monetary policy of the Bank of England. Only the formation of a false breakout at the level of 1.3696 will weaken the position of the British pound and bring the pair back to the important daily support of 1.3654. The further downward trend depends on whether the bears will be able to pick up this level. Only a breakout and a test of this area from the bottom up will form an entry point into short positions, which will push GBP/USD lower - to 1.3615. The most distant target for today will be the area of 1.3575. However, it will be possible to get to it only in the case of very strong data on the US labor market and an inarticulate meeting of the Bank of England. In the absence of active actions of bears around 1.3696, I advise you to postpone sales until a new large resistance of 1.3727. I also recommend opening short positions only if a false breakdown is formed. You can sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the maximum in the area of 1.3763, counting on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day.

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The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for September 14 recorded a sharp positive dynamics of the net position and a fairly large influx of long non-commercial positions, along with a reduction in short ones. And although the British pound remains under pressure in pair with the US dollar, a clear decline in the trading instrument indicates a fairly high interest in long positions on the part of major players. It is quite possible that the sharp increase in inflation in the UK last week forced many traders to reconsider their attitude to the monetary policy of the Bank of England in the direction of its possible tightening. However, the fact that representatives of the Bank of England are in no hurry to talk about these changes affects the activity of traders. I advise you to continue to adhere to buying the British pound at any good decline. The lower the pound falls, the more active buyers of risky assets will begin to show themselves, betting on real changes in the monetary policy of the Bank of England in the future. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased sharply from 29,348 to the level of 44,161.

In contrast, short non-commercial positions decreased 53,872 to the level of 39,371, which indicates a preponderance towards the buyers of the pound and the leveling of the market situation. As a result, the non-commercial net position returned to a positive value and increased from -24,524 to 4,790 a week earlier. The closing price of last week was almost unchanged and amounted to 1.3837 against 1.3838 a week earlier.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily averages, indicating an upward correction for the pair.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline, the pair will be supported by the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.3595.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Miroslaw Bawulski,
InstaForex के विश्लेषणात्मक विशेषज्ञ
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