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22.09.2022: Oil prices dip on hawkish Fed rhetoric. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point and projected a more aggressive path ahead. This means that the central bank may deliver another 75 basis-point rate hike in just a month and a half.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on a possible continued aggressive campaign led to a steep rally in the US dollar, which in turn exerted downward pressure on a number of currencies, stock indices, as well as commodity assets. This once again confirms an inverse correlation between the greenback and most exchange instruments.
Against this background, oil prices dipped below $90 per barrel.
Brent crude oil futures returned to the 90 mark, thus marking the range of 89/93.50. This indicates an accumulation process, which may trigger momentum. Long positions will be relevant in case the price rises above the resistance level of $93.50 per barrel. The downtrend will continue if the price drops below the support level of $89 per barrel.
Gold was also weighed down by hawkish rhetoric from the head of the Fed. Ahead of the meeting, the yellow metal was valued at $1,700 per ounce. After the meeting, the asset collapsed to almost $1,650. If the US regulator continues to carry on with its aggressive interest rate hikes, gold will most likely drop below $1,600 per ounce by the end of this year.
The boundaries of the range serve as the key values. If the price breaks through the 1,655 mark, the metal will extend losses. Alternatively, gold will gain value if it overcomes the level of 1,680. Please bear in mind that a breakout will be confirmed after the price stays firm at least on the four-hour chart.
Meanwhile, the ruble seems to have ignored the outcome of the Fed meeting. In yesterday’s early trade, the dollar/ruble pair made some feeble attempts to advance to 62 rubles per dollar after Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization in his country. However, as soon as the Kremlin clarified the details, the quotes immediately returned to the level of 60 rubles per dollar. This indicates that the market expected a tougher scenario. Now much depends on the European Union, which agreed on a new package of sanctions. If they are similar to most of the previous restrictive measures, the foreign exchange market will show no response. Given that it takes some time to prepare and adopt new sanctions, the ruble is expected to remain stable in the coming days.
From a technical point of view, the dollar/ruble pair has been standing still for almost three months, which is an atypical phenomenon in the market. In case the price consolidates above the levels of 63.5 and 65, investors may turn bullish.
00:00 Introduction 0
00:20 Commentary by the head of the Fed and oil prices
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