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01.07.2020: Traders expect stronger US dollar. Outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Today, despite several attempts, the euro failed to recoup its losses. A series of final manufacturing business activity data did not help revive the market.
The euro, as well as the pound sterling, increased slightly amid the growth of the manufacturing business activity index in the euro area. The final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index surged to 47.4 from 39.4 and improved from a flash reading of 46.9.
However, the enthusiasm of the traders did not last long.
After the publication of similar data in the United Kingdom, both the pound sterling and the euro rushed almost immediately to the values at which they were before the release of the business activity index. Thus, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in the UK rose sharply to 50.1 from 40.7. The reading came in line with the flash estimate.
There were two reasons for a rapid fall in the euro. Firstly, final business activity indices in the euro area came in line with expectations. Secondly, the US was also expected to publish its PMI in the manufacturing sector, which was projected to improve as well.
However, the main focus will be on the ADP jobs report. Interestingly, the report of the US Department of Labor will be published tomorrow. Usually, the statistics are released on Friday. This time, after three months of continuing decline, employment is expected to increase by 3.0 million. Generally, the ADP recorded a 100,000 - 200,000 rise in employment. However, the results of the previous three months were disastrous as they revealed a significant decrease in jobs. Today, if the forecasts are confirmed, this will be the most impressive employment growth since the start of statistics. Most importantly, this fact will convince everyone that the report of the US Department of Labor will obviously be positive. Moreover, it will be a clear sign of the start of the US labor market recovery, as well as the entire American economy.
As for the technical analysis, the previous trading day confirmed the support point by means of the range level of 1.1180. In fact, there was a price rebound in the opposite direction from this level.
Analyzing the current trading chart, we can notice price fluctuations within the previous range of 1.1190/1.1240. The activity is not so high in this range. However, at the time of the US data publication, everything might change quickly(*). The situation is likely to change drastically only if the quote manages to consolidate below 1.1165. Otherwise, fluctuations might expand to the 1.1180/1.1300 boundaries.
Most likely, if a previously set downward trend continues, the quote will again return to the pivot point of 1.1190. It is better to carefully analyze the price behavior at this level. If the price consolidates below 1.1165, it will lead to an avalanche-like price movement for the coming trading days.
Trading signals:
Consider buy deals above 1.1255 towards 1.1285-1.1300.
Consider sell deals below 1.1215, towards 1.1190. Keep main positions after the price consolidates below 1.1165 on the four-hour time frame.
On the previous trading day, the pound/dollar pair failed to consolidate below 1.2250. Therefore, the pound sterling rose to 1.2350/1,2400 (an alternative scenario from the previous release).
Based on the current trading chart, we can see price fluctuations within the range of 1.2400 which indicate a temporary hold on the price on the impulse of the past day. Most likely, this is a temporary phenomenon, since many factors indicate the continuation of the downward trend.
Therefore, if the price consolidates below 1.2350, the quote will go to the variable pivot point at 1.2250. In case of a breakout at this level, the price is expected to move to the lower boundary of the range at 1.2150//1.2350//1.2620.

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