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10.10.2019: UK braced for recession (EUR, USD, GBP)

Today market sentiment depends on conflicting reports around the US – China trade. Market participants are confused. The economic calendar is loaded with macroeconomic reports which cannot be neglected.
The euro/dollar pair and some European indexes opened the European trade with gains. The most popular currency pair managed to climb above the psychological level of 1.10 and touch a two-week high. The euro’s growth comes entirely from weakness in the US dollar.
Traders, who take into account economic conditions in the eurozone and expect decisive measures from the ECB, consider the euro’s advance as an excuse to open sell deals at an attractive price. In the meantime, the ECB finds more and more reasons for revising the current monetary policy.
Another signal for the ECB is the report on Germany’s foreign trade published today. One of the export-oriented world economies recorded a decrease in trade surplus. In August, exports fell by 3.9%, while imports declined by 3.1% year-on-year. As a result, trade surplus narrowed to 16.2 billion euros, the lowest level in six months.
The United Kingdom also unveiled some negative changes in its economy. The UK GDP edged down by 0.1% in August. Economists predicted the flat reading in the economic growth. However, actual data revealed contraction. In the second quarter, the British economy weakened by 0.2%. If a downtrend persists in the third quarter, this would mean the start of a technical recession in the country.
As a result, a similar negative trend was detected in the manufacturing sector. Analysts who had expected a zero value recorded a 0.6%-decline in the manufacturing output in August. Therefore, the annual indicator went deeper into the negative zone and slumped to -1.8%.
Against this background, the pound could not gain momentum like the euro did. The pound/dollar pair is still trading sideways within the previous range of 1.2200-1.2260.
Interestingly, pound bears refrained from active selling after a speech of Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, who highlighted the country’s sluggish economic growth, but not a downturn. Besides, he noted the central bank's readiness for any Brexit scenario.
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