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28.05.2020: US GDP data pushes USD down (USDХ, DJIA, WTI, Brent, USD/CAD)

Oil futures are trading under pressure amid jitters between the US and China. The yuan which is viewed as a barometer of the US – China relations, sank to a record low against the US dollar on Wednesday. Today the offshore yuan is still trading not far away from the low of 7.20. Having passed the security law on Hong Kong, Beijing awaits a response from Donald Trump. Wall Street halted its rally today.
US GDP data and a weekly update on the labor market are on investors’ radars today. The market is discouraged by actual figures.
Notably, financial markets are trading higher despite ongoing risks. The US stocks secured solid gains this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed on Wednesday at 25,000 for the first time since March. Yesterday the S&P 500 surpassed 3,000 points, having climbed above a 200-period moving average. Nevertheless, the Dow Jones is still 10% lower than the strongest level this year. The S&P 500 undershoots the highest mark by 6%.
In the recent days, bulls are holding the upper hand in the equity market. Meanwhile, the US and China are swapping verbal interventions. However, the feud can spark off actions which could be a catalyst for the downtrend in stocks. Most experts foresee exactly this scenario.
Futures on the benchmark US stock indexes were consolidating gains ahead of the publication of macroeconomic data from the US. The Dow Jones rose 0.6% and the S&P 500 edged up 0.11%. Later, they reversed downwards.
The picture on the US dollar is rather curious because of its weakness against most rival currencies and even emerging market currencies. The greenback is about to develop a downtrend. In mid-day, the US dollar index was trading mainly flat. It has been weighed down by uncertainty around Hong Kong and growing appetite for risk. The index is declining in the New York trade. It shed over 1% and settled down at near 98.80 against a basket of six major currencies.
The US Department of Commerce downgraded the first estimate of the gross domestic product for the first quarter. So, the GDP rate contracted 5% instead of minus 4.8% in the flash estimate. This is the sharpest drop of GDP since late 2008. The coronavirus damage has been already priced in. Nevertheless, experts warn of a steeper slowdown in the second quarter.
The number of initial unemployment claims has been going down for eight weeks in a row. At the same time, the indicator remains dismal. Last week, 2 million 123 thousand Americans filed first time for unemployment benefits. This figure surpassed market expectations.
The Canadian dollar is consolidating gains, having advanced 2% versus the American counterpart. The USD/CAD pair is now trading flat at near 1.3760.
Crude oil is trading mixed today. Brent is accelerating gains following a report by Reuters. Saudi Arabia and other participants of the OPEC+ pact are discussing output cuts by 9.7 million barrels per day until the year end. WTI futures are trading mainly flat at about 32 US dollars 70 cents a barrel.

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