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24.05.2019: Oil falls to its 2-months low, RUB remains firm (Brent, RUB, USD)

Oil nosedived yesterday as the US-China trade conflict had been actively discussed in mass media. Thus, a combination of tensed news background and technical factor was probably a reason for this collapse.
Tough statements from Beijing were the first push to decline, tripping stop loss orders placed by traders below $70 per barrel. As a result, Brent crude futures dipped to $67 per barrel. Today the quote has been moving upwards since morning. However, analysts say that the current week is the worst in 2019 for oil.
Technically, the Brent benchmark is likely to recover to $69 quite promptly. As for the mid-term outlook, these tensions may provide support for oil as OPEC+ countries can keep their production quotas unchanged due to the revaluation of risks in order to balance the market. However, oil prices may stay under pressure in the short term. The news about an increase in the US oil stockpiles affects the market as well. The report from Baker Hughes regarding drilling activity in the United States is due tonight.
Otherwise, from a fundamental point of view, the sentiment of the oil market remains the same. The risks of supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf still exist amid the US-Iran stand-off. Currently, there is no data on the market about how much oil exports from Iran reduced in May due to sanctions. The first estimates will be out by the end of the next week reflecting the influence of this factor on the market.
OPEC+ countries talk cautiously about the prospects for a deal to be concluded at the next meeting scheduled on June 25-26.
Trader’s stance towards the ruble is ruled by external factors today. The risk appetite lowered amid the escalation of trade conflicts. Recently, the weak manufacturing PMI from the United States and Germany worsened the economic picture.
Yesterday the ruble/dollar pair started the day with an upward gap and then got an upward correction targeting the level of 65 rubles. There it met serious resistance.
The further developments depend on if a short-term shock will turn into a mid-term downtrend. There are already some prerequisites for this scenario. The pair dropped to 64.63 today in the first five minutes of trade on the Moscow Exchange.
We keep on following the developments. Stay with us!

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