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21.05.2019: Oil prices slide while ruble remains strong (Brent, RUB, USD)

Yesterday oil futures were trading mixed. The Brent crude benchmark gained solid ground in early deals amid the results of the OPEC+ Monitoring Committee meeting. Later in the day, Brent futures retreated after a short-term consolidation near the resistance level at 73.5 dollars per barrel.
Today a rise in Brent prices is capped. At the opening of a trading session, Brent futures increased by 0.5% to 72.18 barrels. The external factors favor a further rise towards 75 dollars per barrel unless negative news is published.
Recently, Donald Trump threatened Iran with harsh measures if it does not stop displaying aggression in the Middle East. The US President said that Washington and Tehran did not hold negotiations. The dialogue depends on Iran. These comments provided support to the oil market.
At the same time, concerns over escalation of a trade war between the United States and China limit a rise in oil prices. Moreover, the American Petroleum Institute will release the crude oil inventories report during the North American trading session.
Yesterday the Russian ruble was the leader among other currencies of developing countries despite the fact that a rise in oil prices came to a halt by the end of the day. On Monday, the US dollar retreated against other majors after a rapid rally that was seen last week. However, today the greenback managed to recoup its losses.
The USD/RUB pair resumed the bearish trend after a slight correction that was registered on the two last days of the previous week. The ruble has a chance of advancing towards the level of 63.7. The high demand for the Russian government bonds from abroad and a steady growth of oil prices are the factors that provide support to the ruble.
However, there are also some negative factors. The first one is a continuous fall of the currencies of developing countries amid global trade tensions and geopolitical risks in some regions, particularly in Iran. The second factor is anti-Russian sanctions connected with the public debt and government banks.
Today, in the first five minutes of a trading session the USD/RUB pair skyrocketed by 267 pips to the level of 64.5489.
On Tuesday the US dollar advanced against its major counterparts.
Traders are waiting for publication of the minutes of the FOMC monetary policy that was held on April 30 – May 1. The publication will take place tomorrow at 9.00 pm Moscow time. Further on, some Fed officials are due to deliver speeches on Tuesday. We will keep close tabs on the market developments. Stay tuned!

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