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06.07.2020: What does market optimism rest on?(USDХ, DJIA, WTI, USD/CAD)

The markets opened a new trading week on the optimistic note. Wall Street opened on Monday with a spike. The US dollar index has been consolidating in a trading range for the second month in a row without any signs of a trend. This week could clear up a further trend for the US dollar.
Remarkably, despite alarming coronavirus rates in the US, Wall Street is developing a rally as investors prefer to focus on the rapid economic recovery instead of the scenario of the second less severe shutdown. Besides, investors are anticipating a new portion of liquidity as soon as the US Congress approves a package of stimulus measures.
Futures of the Dow Jones jumped 1.4% in the early New York trade to trade at 26,134. The S&P 500 climbed 1.2% to trade at 3,164.
Today market participants are alert to the non-manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management. Investors expect a modest growth in the US service and construction sectors in June. This could terminate a two-month collapse caused by the pandemic.
The US dollar index was trading mainly flat for the whole last week. It was trapped in the trading range of 96 – 97. Today the US dollar is trading lower against a basket of six major rivals. The index shed 0.4% in the evening trade.
Excessive dollar liquidity is the key reason behind the greenback’s weakness. Besides, investors are poised to buy riskier assets despite the fact that the recent events should have dampened risk-on mood. Indeed, the risks of the coronavirus resurgence, trade wars, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and waning popularity of Donald Trump in the latest polls are still going on. So, the rally of risky assets could hardly be viewed as a trend. As a result, the US dollar will be able to grab the opportunity to assert strength soon.
The USD/CAD pair is making efforts to move higher. As soon as the resistance of 1.3680 is broken, the price could jump to the target of 1.3770. The most probable scenario suggests a climb as high as 1.41. Alternatively, if the ongoing downward correction carries on, the currency pair will be able to hit a new low at near 1.3380. This move will confirm the downward trend with prospects of a deeper decline to 1.3200.
In the New York session, WTI again is trading in the red. The North American grade is consolidating at about 40 dollars a barrel. A further rally is moderated by robust shale oil production in the US. Another factor to cap the rally is the increase in coronavirus cases. So, crude oil has a slim chance to break the upper border of the trading range after consolidation is over. Experts do not foresee a steady bullish trend. Oil prices could find support from escalating geopolitical risks.
Today prices of both benchmark grades are propped up by expectations of lower oil supplies from Libya. The country is going to export 1.2 million barrels in July which is almost a third less than exports in June.

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