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17.05.2019: Politics to lead way for EUR (EUR, USD, GBP)

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The pound keeps on falling after a quite calm month. The euro is doing better, but it is still giving in to the US dollar.
Investors are worried as Italy’s Vice Premier expressed unwillingness to comply with the EU fiscal rules. Matteo Salvini warned that in case of successful parliamentary elections the country would ignore the EU rules. He believes, these rules oppress Italy. The euro/dollar pair declined to its 7-day low. This fall is not a disaster, but rather serious as it signals a downtrend.
The euro/dollar pair attempted to close above 1.1250 for three times in the last three weeks. It seems to be ready to drop below 1.11.
The EUR bears softened a bit on Friday, but then the single currency resumed its downward movement. By the middle of the European session, the major currency pair tried to consolidate near 1.1163.
The final inflation data from the eurozone is in the spotlight today. Annually, inflation rose to 1.7% in April from 1.4% in March meeting the experts’ forecasts and the estimates. This news is expected to provide some support for the euro.
The pound remains the weakest currency against the euro as it is falling for the ninth day in a row. However, it is not surprising. Political risks and the threat of a no-deal Brexit keep on affecting the British currency. Meanwhile, traders get more and more concerned regarding economic losses related to Brexit and the US-China trade war.
The pound/dollar pair has lost 1.6% in five days of lowering. It was trading at 1.2758 during the peak of the European session as sellers managed to renew February’s low. Although, active selling is not likely as the pair might have a correctional growth.
The news regarding the preparation for the next Brexit vote may have a short-term impact on the pair’s movement.

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