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03.06.2020: USD downtrend could mean recovery in US economy (USDХ, DJIA, WTI, Brent, USD/CAD)

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The US currency is extending weakness. Its index dipped to 97.43 that is 90 pips lower than the closing price on Friday. Wall Street is trading on the positive note as investors are betting on the rapid recovery in the US economy neglecting the violent clashes in major US cities. The market is alert to ADP National Employment Report and a policy meeting of the Bank of Canada,
A report on the US labor market cheered up investors today. The number of jobs in the US private sector contracted 2.76 million in May whereas the economy lost 19.5 million jobs in April. Such notable improvement came as a pleasant surprise to investors. The consensus suggested a decline by 9 million jobs.
The US stock indexes accelerated their rally this trading week. Futures on the Dow Jones gained 0.9% to 25,930. Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.55% and touched 3,093.88.
Investors shrugged off coronavirus worries and the trade conflict between the US and China, thus adding to the overall market optimism. Meanwhile, Washington announced plans to ban passenger flights by China’s air companies to the US starting from June 16.
In fact, it is not quite clear what is the right stance on the current situation. Economists foresee grave troubles in the future speculating on new stimulus measures. At the same time, investors’ optimism is not justified as they seem to be bitten by the buying bug following the downturn in March.
The US dollar has already incurred heavy losses amid prospects of further stimulus measures from the US government and a recovery in the global economy. Such confidence encourages traders to increase bets on risky assets.
The US dollar index was trading at near 97.5 in the early New York trade, having shed 0.15% from the closing price yesterday. The Bank of Canada maintained the key policy rate at 0.25% as expected. As for the policy meeting, traders are mostly interested in comments from the regulator. Any unexpected statements on further monetary policy could trigger a surge in volatility in the Canadian dollar and therefore, in the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, it is trading at the level above 1.35. Like other commodity currencies, the loonie finds solid support from the rally of oil prices. However, the rally in the oil market has stalled today in light of the news on the OPEC+ deal.
Citing Bloomberg, delegates encountered some disagreement. So, the cartel and non-OPEC Russia might not reach the decision to extend the oil production pact due to poor compliance with its conditions. In response, Brent crude retreated from earlier gains to 40 dollars a barrel. Before the publication of the official data on the US crude inventories, August WTI contracts were trading at about 39 dollars 30 cents a barrel. July WTI futures slipped for a while, but traders rushed to buy futures on dips. The price again approached 37 dollars a barrel.
Weakness of oil prices seems to be short-lived developments of a speculative nature. The main thing is that Russia and Saudi Arabia settled their standoff and are poised to extend the ongoing pact.

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