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21.0.2021: Oil waiting for reason to start correction - (Brent, WTI, USD/RUB, EUR/RUB)

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Oil prices have somehow steadied while the volume of crude output is gradually increasing. Investors are now evaluating possible scenarios. From now on, everything will depend on fuel demand and the pace of its recovery. Also, the macroeconomic data such as GDP report may clarify the situation. However, these reports are not published regularly. Therefore, investors will have to rely on the data on industrial production and retail sales. So, in the short term, oil prices are expected to hold near the current levels. At the same time, the oversold conditions of the market may soon lead to a correction. Yet, oil needs some serious drivers for this, so investors will continue to closely monitor the news background. Tomorrow, the meeting of the European Central Bank will take place which will be followed by the press conference with Christine Lagarde. In case the regulator makes an upward revision of its forecast for economic growth, the correction in the oil market will become possible.
Now let’s take a closer look at different oil grades. After a rapid decline in the period from July 14 to July 19, Brent crude came to a standstill. The price of the European grade is fluctuating in the channel between 69.50 and 70.20 US dollars per barrel. In this case, it is better to look for a breakout of either of the boundaries. This will indicate the future trajectory of the price. In the meantime, it is worth staying in the current trading range.
As for WTI crude, it is currently trading in the range between 66 and 68.50 US dollars per barrel. The quotes are unlikely to leave this channel in the course of the day. So, we will keep monitoring the news background and let you know if the forecast changes.
Against this backdrop, we cannot ignore the Russ74ю31ian ruble. Thus, the dollar/ruble pair slightly pulled back yesterday to hit the level of 74.30. However, later the pair reversed as nothing had happened. Judging by the current turbulence in the market, we can assume that market participants are targeting a new price range. So, now the pair is likely to settle between 74.30 and 74.80 during today’s session.
Meanwhile, yesterday, the euro/ruble pair showed a more visible decline compared to its American counterpart. The quotes dropped to the mark of 87.50 rubles per euro, and then the price stopped. It is possible that a new trading range will be formed near this level. It is expected to be found between 87.50 and 87.70 rubles per euro. In this case, the trading strategy will imply the breakout of one of the boundaries.
In fact, the ruble’s behaviour is rather weird. Instead of following other currencies and falling against the US dollar, it stays mostly unchanged. There is even a slight sign of strengthening. On the one hand, this can be attributed to the Federal State Statistic Service which has postponed the release of the macroeconomic data. Yesterday, markets were waiting for the publication of the unemployment rate and the data on retail sales. However, the release was delayed until July 28. As for the forecasts, they remain largely negative which can be a bearish factor for the ruble. But since there is no data yet, the ruble doesn’t know how to behave. That is why we can still observe the ruble’s uncertain movements.

00:00 Crude Oil price and factore influenced on it
01:16 Brent
01:53 WTI
02:14 USD/RUB
02:47 EUR/RUB
03:21 Ruble’s weird behaviour

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