Market Roundup
• Odoxa poll after Paris attack: Macron on 24.5%, Le Pen 23%, Fillon, Melenchon both 19% in the 1st round.
• Trump says he will unveil tax plan next week that includes "massive" tax cut for individuals and businesses – AP.
• French yields hit 3-month lows as investors focus on final polls.
• Euro now at "acceptable" level, no longer needs to "devalue" -Melenchon spokesman.
• France election poses risk to world economy-Schaeuble.
• U.S. March existing home sales 5.71 mln vs consensus 5.60 mln, Feb 5.47 mln-NAR.
• Markit US. Manufacturing PMI at lowest since September.
• Markit U.S. Manufacturing flash April PMI 52.8 vs consensus 53.5, final March 53.3.
• Markit U.S. services April flash PMI 52.5 vs consensus 53.0, final march 52.8.
• Markit composite employment index at lowest since February 2010.
• Growth improving but ECB accommodation still needed: Draghi.
• China central bank has set no limits on yuan outflows.
• Bank of England's Saunders edges towards rate rise-Reuters News.
• Canada inflation rate cools in March as food prices drop.
• Canada CPI +0.2% m/m, +1.6% y/y vs consensus +0.4% and +1.8%.
• China's rising debt poses the biggest risk to the economy - former finance minister.
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• No significant data
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.0650 levels and currently trading at 1.0707 levels. The pair has made session high at 1.0709 and hit lows at 1.0682 levels. The euro declined against the dollar on Friday as investors braced for Sunday's first round of a tight French presidential election. The market is eager to know the outcome of the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday. Opinion polls suggest that France’s election will likely come down to a second-round duel between independent centrist Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, head of the anti-European Union and anti-immigrant National Front. On the data front, U.S. home resales rose more than expected in March to the highest level in more than a decade as more homes came on the market and were quickly snapped up by consumers. The National Association of Realtors said on Friday that existing home sales increased 4.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.71 million units last month. The euro was down 0.2 percent against the dollar at $1.0693, close to the session's low. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of six major rivals, was up 0.18 percent at 99.954.
GBP/USD is supported in the range of 1.2749 levels and currently trading at 1.2799 levels. It reached session high at 1.2802 and dropped to session low at 1.2763 levels. British pound declined against the dollar on Friday as sterling was dragged down after weaker-than- expected UK retail sales, but it stayed on track for its strongest week since November after British Prime Minister Theresa May's decision this week to call an early general election. The pound lost some of that sheen on Friday, after the biggest quarterly fall in retail sales in seven years. That added to signs the vote last year to quit the EU and the price rises spurred by the currency's resulting slide are finally putting pressure on consumers. Retail sales volumes contracted 1.4 percent in the first quarter following a 0.8 percent rise in the last three months of 2016, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday. The pound was 0.3 percent lower at $1.2770 by 1546 GMT, having risen to as high as $1.2908 on Tuesday.
USD/CAD is supported at 1.3450 levels and is trading at 1.3500 levels. It has made session high at 1.3524 and lows at 1.3484 levels. The Canadian dollar declined against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as the Lonnie was pressured fall in oil prices and as cooler-than-expected Canadian inflation data. Canada's annual inflation rate cooled more than expected in March, pulling away from the central bank's target as food prices dropped for the sixth month in a row, underscoring expectations interest rates will stay put for some time. The annual rate fell to 1.6 percent from the previous month's 2.0 percent, exceeding economists' forecasts for a decline to 1.8 percent. The three measures of core inflation put in place by the Bank of Canada last year remained tame. Oil prices tumbled more than 2 percent on Friday, on track for the biggest weekly drop in a month, on renewed concerns that increasing U.S. production and high inventories will thwart OPEC's attempts to reduce the global crude glut. The Canadian dollar was last trading at C$1.3495 to the greenback, or 74.12 U.S. cents, weaker than Thursday's close of C$1.3472, or 74.31 U.S. cents.
AUD/USD is supported around 0.7521 levels and currently trading at 0.7538 levels. It hit session high at 0.7545 and made session lows at 0.7519 levels. Australian dollar trod water against US dollar on Friday as investors shifted focus to this weekend's first round of voting in the French presidential election. With millions of French voters still undecided or planning to abstain, the vote is the most unpredictable in France in decades and investors are nervous about potential last-minute surprises that could trigger market turmoil. Opinion polls suggest that the election in the second-biggest euro zone country will likely come down to a duel in the final between independent centrist Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, head of the anti-European Union and anti-immigrant National Front. The Australian dollar held at $0.7536 after gaining 0.4 percent in the previous session. For the week, it is down 0.7 percent. The dollar, which has been pressured lately by weaker-than-expected economic data and worries about the Trump administration's ability to pass tax and fiscal stimulus legislation, rose on Friday as traders squared up positions ahead of the weekend.
Equities Recap
European shares advanced on Friday, though France's benchmark CAC 40 declined slightly ahead of the first round of voting in the French presidential election.
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.05 percent, FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 0.13 percent, Germany's Dax ended up 0.3, and France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.3 percent.
U.S. stocks dipped on Friday as investors were cautious ahead of the first round of the closely contested French presidential election, but the S&P 500 managed to notch its first weekly gain in three.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.14percent, S&P 500 ended down 0.29 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.10 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury debt prices gained on Friday ahead of Sunday’s presidential election in France, with no major U.S. economic releases due to set market direction.
Ten-year notes gained 4/32 in price to yield 2.23 percent. The 10-year yield briefly dipped to 2.165 percent on Tuesday, the lowest since Nov. 10, and has tumbled from 2.63 percent on March 14.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose slightly on Friday as investors awaited the first-round of voting in the presidential French election at the weekend and possible announcements about tax changes in the United States.
Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,284.62 an ounce by 2:30 p.m. EDT (1830 GMT), on track to close the week little changed after five straight weeks higher. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.4 percent at $1,289.10.
Oil prices tumbled more than 2 percent on Friday, on track for the biggest weekly drop in a month, on renewed concerns that increasing U.S. production and high inventories will thwart OPEC's attempts to reduce the global crude glut.
U.S. crude futures were at $49.45 a barrel, down 2.5 percent, or $1.26 as of 1:52 p.m. EDT (1752 GMT), on course for the biggest weekly decline since the week ended March 10. Brent futures were at $51.83 a barrel, down $1.16, or 2.2 percent.
