The unexpected increase in tariffs on Chinese imports has radically changed the near future of the euro. The currency is preparing to grow for the second week in a row amid concerns that any escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China will force the Fed to lower interest rates. D. Trump raised tariffs from 10% to 25%, and Beijing said it would strike back. Both sides are conducting the final round of negotiations in an attempt to save a bargain.
Investors, meanwhile, believe that the conflict will inevitably lead to a decrease in the interest rate in the United States. Before that, the markets were betting on one rate increase by the end of 2019. China's counter-measures, although not as large-scale, will still affect the prospects for the US economy and increase the chances of a Fed rate cut, especially since the Fed now has more opportunities to soften policies than most other central banks, and this will ultimately lead to depreciation of the dollar against the euro and the yen.
The single European currency rose by 0.1%, to 1.1220 dollars, and has been growing for the second week in a row. Overall, the risk appetite was muted, although some of the high-yielding currencies, such as the Australian dollar, which fell at the beginning of this week, rose after D. Trump's statement. So far, trading tensions have little effect on currency markets: asylum assets, such as the Japanese yen, added only 1.2% this week, and volatility indicators on the currency market were suppressed, despite a slight rebound.
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