The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD currency pair remains the same and so far does without making adjustments. The assumed wave b took a longer form due to the decline at the end of last week, and this is very bad for the current counting since wave b has already turned out to be too deep compared to wave a. Therefore, the corrective wave b can go below the low wave a, and in this case the entire downward trend section can resume its construction, which will significantly complicate the entire wave counting. So far, I consider this scenario as a backup, but the decline in the quotes of the instrument recently makes us treat it more carefully. If the quotes of the instrument successfully break through the 0.0% Fibonacci level, then the entire wave picture will have to be revised. At the same time, the euro-dollar pair moves only through corrective structures, as seen on the chart below. This time everything can be exactly like this.
The news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument was practically absent on Friday. The attention of the markets in recent months has been entirely focused on the Fed, so any new comment from its chairman may affect the level of demand for the US currency. However, Jerome Powell's speech has already taken place this week, so the Fed chair will need to have a very strong desire to please the markets in order to report something new. After all, the markets continue to wait for information from Powell and his colleagues about the timing of the QE tapering. All other questions are of little interest to them now.
Thus, it is likely that the demand for the US currency may grow on Friday, which will be very inappropriate for the current wave count. After the Fed meeting, there were rumors that the tapering will begin in November. But this was not particularly mentioned by Powell. Much will now depend on the situation with the coronavirus, which is not retreating in the United States.
Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward wave b may be completed soon. Therefore, I still expect an increase in the quotes of the instrument and advise buying with targets located near the 1.1965 and 1.2036 marks, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. As a confirmation of this assumption, we can wait for a successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level or an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 0.0% Fibonacci level. I do not advise buying without confirmation, since the downward wave can take an even more complex form, and then the entire wave count will require adjustments.
The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly took a more complex form, but it still ended in the same place as the previous three-wave section. A further decline in the quotes of the instrument may mean that the entire wave counting of the last months is transformed into a more complex downward section of the trend.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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