For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave marking looks quite complicated at the moment, but it does not require any clarifications yet. The upward wave, built between May 13 and May 27, does not fit into the overall wave picture, but it can still be considered corrective as part of the downward trend section. Thus, it can now be concluded that the downward section of the trend takes a longer and more complex form. I am not a big supporter of constantly complicating the wave marking when dealing with a strongly lengthening trend area. It would be much more appropriate to identify rare corrective waves, after which new clear structures would be built. At this time, we have completed waves a, b, c, and d, so we can assume that the instrument has moved on to constructing wave e. If this assumption is correct, the quotes' decline should continue in the next week or two. The wave markings of the euro and the pound differ slightly in that the downward section of the trend for the euro has an impulse form, but the ascending and descending waves alternate almost identically, and both instruments presumably completed the construction of their fourth waves at the same time.
Nobody believes in the pound sterling again
The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument increased by 30 basis points on August 16, but only due to the movement in the last two hours. There was no news background in America today, but several reports were released in the UK this morning. Nevertheless, it was in the afternoon that the market showed great interest in active trading. The British reports on unemployment and wages did not interest the market much. However, the first report remained at a consistently low value, and the second showed higher growth than the market expected. The Briton pound could have used this data and slightly improved its position but did not want to do it. But why the demand for the dollar began to fall sharply in the afternoon remains a mystery. However, after three days of decline, we may see the beginning of an internal corrective wave, and that's all.
Commerzbank analysts reported today that the Bank of England is acting too cautiously on the issue of tightening monetary policy, which will not be enough to stop the growth of inflation. Economists concluded that the pressure on the pound might persist due to the uncertainty of the Bank of England and the election of a new prime minister in the UK. In addition, Commerzbank believes that the recession, which will begin in the second half of the year, will begin to constrain the regulator's actions, and it will not be able to continue raising the rate in steps of 50 basis points or more. And that's how much is needed at each meeting so that inflation starts to turn towards 2% in a few months and not continue its movement towards 22%. A new inflation report will be released tomorrow morning, which can give the market a figure of 10%. This value will be higher than in Europe or the USA. The threat of a recession may freeze the Bank of England's desire to continue raising the rate for some time.
General conclusions
The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument suggests a continued decline in demand for the pound. I now advise selling the instrument with targets near the estimated mark of 1.1708, which equates to 161.8% by Fibonacci, for each MACD signal "down." An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.2250 mark indicates that the market is not ready for new purchases by the British.
The picture is very similar to the Euro/Dollar instrument at the higher wave scale. The same ascending wave does not fit the current wave pattern, the same three waves down after it. Thus, one thing is unambiguous – the downward section of the trend continues its construction and can turn out to be almost any length.
