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23.05.2019: Oil plunges amid rising US inventories, dragging down ruble (Brent, RUB, USD)

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Yesterday oil prices took a nosedive on the back of a rise in inventories in the United States.
The Energy Information Administration reported that the stockpiles of crude oil expanded unexpectedly to the highest level since July 2017. A weekly rise of 4 million 700 thousand barrels was registered while analysts predicted a decline of 600 thousand barrels.
The downbeat statistics disappointed market participants. Ahead of the EIA report, the Brent crude benchmark retreated from local highs on small time frames and made an attempt to break the support level at 71.6 dollars per barrel. After the news about a rise in stockpiles, oil futures fell deeper to 70.5 dollars per barrel. It was the opening level today.
In the longer term, the outlook for the dynamics of oil prices is optimistic. Members of the OPEC+ deal have achieved high compliance with the agreement on output cuts while tensions in the Persian Gulf are escalating amid the conflict between the United States and Iran. These factors are favorable for oil prices.
Reportedly, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar are considering using alternative routes for shipment of crude oil, as the Strait of Hormuz is no longer safe due to a risk of military conflict in the region.
This news is likely to limit downward moves in oil prices in the nearest future. Probably, Brent futures will remain buoyed above 69.5 levels until the end of May.
The falling oil prices dragged down the Russian currency. At the opening of the Moscow Exchange the ruble weakened against the US dollar. In early deals the USD/RUB pair reached the level of 64.57.
In the short term, the dynamics of the ruble will depend on oil prices.
Further on, the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China remain the sore point. Comments of the US Secretary of the Treasury reduced the chance of striking a deal. Steven Mnuchin said that he did not plan to visit Beijing and resume the trade negotiations. We keep close tabs on the market developments. Stay tuned!

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