4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 31p - 77p - 41p - 42p - 43p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 47p (48p).

The EUR/USD started the third trading day of the week exactly as planned. Macroeconomic reports from the eurozone did not impress or surprise traders at all. The preliminary GDP value of the largest economy - Germany - for the first quarter fully complied with the forecast of 0.7% y/y. The same applies to the GDP of the entire eurozone. +1.2% in the first quarter. Thus, the euro currency continued to fall against the US dollar on May 15. During the US trading session, traders had to be a little nervous, since most of them probably had already tuned in to the new downward trend, and both American reports on industrial production and retail sales failed. There were reductions in short positions, which led to a rebound in prices from the support level of 1.1181. However, we believe that these weak reports will not change the general mood of traders and selling will still resume, just after a short pause. In the meantime, Donald Trump managed to make a statement regarding the escalation of the trade conflict with China. There was a solemn phrase "America has been treated unfairly for many years," and the US president also argued that the negotiations did not come to a standstill. Trump said that negotiations with China continue and this dialogue is "good." In general, in the end, countries are likely to agree, because in general, trade war is not beneficial to anyone. Although, of course, it is China that will suffer more from it, since it exports much more goods to the United States than it receives in the opposite direction. On the other hand, Trump uses his favorite weapon in the negotiations - threats, understanding that it is more unprofitable for Beijing to fight with the United States.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD continues to move down. Therefore, it is now recommended that you consider sell orders with a target of 1.1131, but after overcoming the level of 1.1173, since the pair rebounded from this level.

Buy-positions can be returned if traders manage to gain a foothold back above the critical line. In this case, the first target for the longs will be again be the resistance level of 1.1268.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.