15.01.202115:21 Analisis Forex & Kajian: GBP/USD: plan for the US session on January 15 (analysis of morning trades)

To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need to:

Today's reports on the fall in UK GDP in November this year and the reduction in industrial production are only the beginning of the picture that will show the real state of the economy at the end of 2020. In my forecast for the first half of the day, I paid attention to the level of 1.3661 and recommended to act based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about the signals that led to the entry into the market. The formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.3661 led to the formation of an entry point into the market, as the trend at the end of the last day was upward. However, nothing came of this signal, and after a small increase of 15 points, the bears achieved a breakdown of the support of 1.3661. Then the situation began to develop more interestingly, a small consolidation below 1.3661 with a return and a test of this area from the bottom up led to the formation of a sell signal for the pound and a further fall of the pair in the area of the first target of 1.3624. The downward movement was about 40 points.

Exchange Rates 15.01.2021 analysis

At the moment, trading is conducted around the level of 1.3624 and buyers need to try very hard to protect this area. Good fundamental statistics on the US economy will only increase the pressure on the pound and lead to a breakdown of the level of 1.3624. In this scenario, it is best to consider new long positions after updating the support of 1.3585, from which you can buy GBPUSD immediately on the rebound to correct 30-35 points within the day. If the fall of the pound is fast enough, it is best to postpone purchases until the test of the minimum of 1.3544. An equally important task for buyers will be to return the pair to the resistance area of 1.3661 by the end of the day. Only this will allow to count on a resumption of growth GBP/USD at the beginning of next week and to break the yearly highs. Consolidation above 1.3661 forms a good entry point into long positions, but this is provided that the US data will come out much worse than economists ' forecasts.

To open short positions on GBPUSD, you need to:

Selling the pound at weekly lows is a bad enough idea. Therefore, as I noted above, all the emphasis will be on fundamental statistics for the United States. If the reports come out better than economists' forecasts, and the bears achieve a breakthrough and consolidation below 1.3624, by analogy with the morning sale, then you can safely open short positions and wait for the update of a new minimum in the area of 1.3585, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of an upward correction in the second half of the day, you can expect to sell the pound only after the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3661, where the moving averages play on the side of the bears. If there is no activity at this level, you can safely sell GBP/USD after testing the annual maximum in the area of 1.3701 with the aim of a downward correction of 20-30 points within the day.

Exchange Rates 15.01.2021 analysis

Let me remind you that COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for January 5 recorded a slight decrease in interest in the British pound, but this does not affect the overall picture. Long non-commercial positions decreased from 37 550 to 35 526. At the same time, short non-commercial remained practically unchanged and increased only from 31 518 to 31 861. As a result, the non-commercial net position, although it decreased, remained positive and amounted to 3,665 against 6,032 a week earlier. All this suggests that traders continue to bet on the strengthening of the pound even in the face of a new strain of COVID-19, for which there is no vaccine yet. The demand for the pound is limited by quarantine measures in the UK, which will be canceled sooner or later after the situation with infections has stabilized. Additional stimulus by the Bank of England, which will soon be discussed by economists, may also somewhat smooth the upward trend in the pound.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below the 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates a further fall in the pound.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of growth of GBP/USD, the average border of the indicator around 1.3661 will act as an intermediate resistance.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Pakar analisis
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