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Long-term review

The next two days may become very important for the EUR / USD pair, which has been trading in a narrow range of 1.1060-1.1120 for the past week. It is difficult to find buyers against the backdrop of the threat of a recession in Germany in the third quarter, as well as the political crisis in Italy, and the uncertain situation around the Brexit euro. The main currency pair stays above 2-year lows primarily due to expectations of a decrease in the Fed interest rate next month.

If until recently, the probability of a reduction in the federal funds rate this year was estimated at 60%. Now, the derivatives market is almost 100% sure of two rounds of decline by December. So far, the leadership of the Federal Reserve has not commented on these prospects, which makes the speech of the head of the American Central Bank Jerome Powell on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium very important. The whole world is now watching this event and the Fed chairman may well take the opportunity to declare his intention to soften monetary policy, thereby, confirming market expectations. .

Exchange Rates 22.08.2019 analysis

Statistics on the eurozone recently did not please market participants: the currency block economy slowed down in the second quarter. According to the ZEW poll in Germany, investor sentiment has reached its lowest level since 2010 and industrial production has shown the highest rate of decline since November 2018.

It is noteworthy that Barclays experts predicted three Fed rate cuts in 2019, naming the slowdown in the eurozone GDP growth rate as one of the reasons.

"Brexit without a deal now looks like the most likely scenario. Its implementation will be a serious blow not only to the UK but also to Europe as a whole, whose economy is currently not in good shape. In this regard, we lowered the estimate for GDP growth in the eurozone for 2020 from 1.0% to 0.6%. Despite the fact that the US economy is in good condition and will grow at a rate of about 2% next year, the external background will leave the Fed no choice but to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points three times before the end of this year," said financial institute representatives.

However, before the performance of Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole, the euro is waiting for another test. Today the minutes of the July meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will be announced.

Although the regulator left interest rates unchanged last month, it adjusted its forecasts, which suggest a reduction in interest rates in the future. In fact, the Governing Council of the ECB laid the foundation for a possible reduction in September. In addition, the European Central Bank may resume its program of quantitative easing (QE) in the coming months. These are negative points for the euro.

It is assumed that if Jerome Powell signals a further weakening of the Fed's monetary policy in September, then the EUR/USD rate may rise to the level of 1.12. If the statements of the head of the American Central Bank are evasive, the pair may break the mark of 1.10.

The situation of the single European currency may be aggravated if Italy's political risks re-enter the agenda. After Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned on Tuesday, everyone is waiting for the Five Star movement to create a new coalition, or if President Sergio Mattarella announces early elections.

Uitgevoerd door V Isakov,
Analytische expert
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