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Over the last trading day, the euro/dollar currency pair showed volatility close to the average daily point of 51, but something cardinal did not happen on the trading chart. From technical analysis, we see that the current movement is still the same oscillation that originated in the first week of September. That is, whatever the volatility of the past days was, the quotation continues to move, strictly speaking, horizontally, with values such as 1.0927/1.1000/1.1080 (1.1115). The phenomenon is very interesting and there are quite a lot of factors, but mostly they (factors) came to us from the information and news background.

As discussed in the previous review, the traders continue to work on the method of rebound/breakdown on existing boundaries, where conventionally, there was a short-term operation from the past points against the background of a slight recovery of the quotation from the upper frame (1.1080) downward. As you understand, small-amplitude jumping is of interest only to speculators, because a lot of sense is not here. Conservative traders stay away, tracking only fluctuations and fixing points relative to the values of 1.0927 and 1.1115. Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), we see that the corrective move went into the lateral swing with the control points of 1.0927 (support) and 1.1115 (ceiling).

The news background of the past day had a package of statistics on the United States, where there was good data on applications for unemployment benefits. So, given the fact that the previous data was revised, we saw a reduction in repeated applications by 13 thousand. Primary applications came out with a slight increase of 2 thousand, I recall, they expected an increase of 9 thousand. After that, data on sales on the secondary housing market were published, where they were waiting for a reduction from 5.42M to 5.37M, but received an increase to 5.49M. Thus, the outgoing statistics for the United States was not so bad, but how did the American dollar react to this? – growth in the recovery phase, no more

The information background traditionally continued the discussion of the Brexit divorce proceedings. This time, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker suddenly changed his tough rhetoric to mercy, suggesting that London and Brussels could still reach a deal on exit conditions before October 31. Naturally, on such a positive note, the pound locally soared, which cannot be said about the euro, which moderately continued horizontal oscillation. The euro has already managed to adapt to the information background of Brexit, and there are plenty of problems in Europe, in addition to the whole, the EU is ready for hard entry in case of something that cannot be said about Britain, according to Juncker.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we do not have standing statistics on Europe and the United States but do not worry, because the information background is not asleep and yet something can fly. For example, today a meeting is scheduled between two Brexit negotiators, Michel Barnier of the eurozone representative and Stephen Barkley, the representative of Britain. The topic of the meeting is the analysis of the proposals of Britain regarding the agreement. Let me remind you that a day earlier, London responded to the ultimatum of Brussels with a written document with proposals to break the deadlock on Brexit.

Exchange Rates 20.09.2019 analysis

The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar stands out only by US data on GDP (Q2) and orders for durable goods. The rest is silence, and all hope is only on a spontaneous information background.

The most interesting events displayed below:

On Monday, 22nd of September

EU 09:00 London time - a composite index of business activity in the manufacturing sector Markit (Preliminary): Prev 51.9 – Forecast 51.2

USA 14:45 London time - a composite index of business activity Markit (Preliminary): Prev 50.7 – Forecast 49.6

On Wednesday, 25th of September

USA 15:00 London time - new home sales (Aug): Prev 635K – Forecast 645K

On Thursday, 26th of September

USA 13:30 London time - annual GDP data (Q2): Prev 2.0% – Forecast 2.0%

On Friday, 27th of September

USA 13:30 London time - orders for durable goods

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that everything is stable in the literal and figurative sense. The horizontal movement remains in the market, and the amplitude fluctuation in some sense is compressed, that is, there are variable boundaries, for example, the main range is 1.0927/1.1115, a narrower fluctuation 1.1035 / 1.1075 appeared in it. All this is caused by variable interest together with versatile information and news background and is in some local accumulations that can serve for the subsequent amplification, in terms of movements. Speculators, in turn, jump in the available corridors, working mainly on the rebound, but at the same time, do not forget about the method of breaking the boundaries.

It is likely to assume that the fluctuation in the given corridors will remain in the market for more than one day, where the variable boundaries will fall, and the main attention to the levels of 1.0927/1.1115 will remain. Regarding the current values, I would look at the values of 1.1030/1.1080 in terms of work on the breakdown.

Exchange Rates 20.09.2019 analysis

Based on the above information, we will derive trading recommendations:

  • We consider the buy positions in the case of price-fixing higher than 1.1080, with a primary prospect of a move to 1.1115. Consider the further move after fixing the price higher than 1.1115.
  • We consider selling positions in the case of fixing the price lower than 1.1030, with the initial move to 1.1015-1.1000. Further actions are considered after fixing the price below the psychological mark of 1.1000, preferably below 1.0985.

Technical analysis

Analyzing different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short term are aimed at reducing, that is, the work is carried out in terms of the descent of the price to the lower border of the variable corridor. The intraday and mid-term prospects retain upward interest concerning an earlier move.

Exchange Rates 20.09.2019 analysis

Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year.

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(September 20 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The volatility of the current time is 28 points, which is low for this period. It is likely to assume that if the quote keeps moving within the variable limits of accumulation, the volatility of the day will remain at a low level. A breakdown of accumulation of 1.1035/1.1075 can give a local burst, with increased volatility.

Exchange Rates 20.09.2019 analysis

Key levels

Resistance zones: 1.1100**; 1.1180*; 1.1300**; 1.1450; 1.1550; 1.1650*; 1.1720**; 1.1850**; 1.2100

Support zones: 1.1000***; 1.0850**; 1.0500***; 1.0350**; 1.0000***.

* Periodic level

** Range level

*** Psychological level

**** The article is based on the principle of conducting transactions, with daily adjustments.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Uitgevoerd door Gven Podolsky,
Analytische expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019
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