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Exchange Rates 25.05.2020 analysis

A new trading week will begin, as often happens, with a few practically empty days, in terms of macroeconomic statistics. However, closer to the end of the week, interesting and important news and reports will begin to be available to traders. Recall that everything revolves around the upcoming US presidential elections in November 2020 now in the world and in the foreign exchange market, as well as about a possible new confrontation between China and the US. Many traders underestimate the topic of US elections, considering it not too significant. However, we do not think so. The issue of choosing power in many countries where power at least sometimes changes is a very, very serious question. A striking example is the United Kingdom. Despite the fact that the conservatives after the last parliamentary elections and the prime minister remained in power, that is, in fact, nothing has changed, nevertheless, it was Boris Johnson's figure that greatly influenced many national and national processes. It will also affect the future of Great Britain. The most commonplace that comes to mind is the issue of the coronavirus pandemic in Britain, the issue of extending the transition period (especially during the epidemic), the issue of trade negotiations with the European Union and the United States. Indeed, these topics, in which Johnson has shown and is showing himself and his government are far from the best side, can go around with the British people for several years. Already, many experts note that a black hole is forming in the country's budget, which will need to be covered with something. And how to cover it? Only by credit money or tax increase. That is, in any case, ordinary Britons will pay for decisions or mistakes of the government. Approximately the same picture is observed in the United States. This is not to say that America under Donald Trump lived poorly or in a fundamentally different way than under other presidents. If not for the pandemic, Trump would really have something to boast at the end of his first presidential term, and the chances of re-election would have been much higher than 50%. However, Trump, from our point of view, made one serious mistake. He forgot that speaking from a position of strength and threats is possible and this is effective with those who cannot fully respond. America's ties with China are so strong that it is impossible to influence him with blackmail and threats. China simply has something to answer. And he answered this year, as no one in the world had expected. We, of course, do not say that Beijing intentionally released the virus into the wild, at that time itself was ready for this, therefore, with relatively small victims, it localized the epidemic. But if you do not consider this issue, but just look at the situation as a whole, then China dealt a blow to all its main competitors. In the European Union and the United States. The European and American economies will contract by record numbers in 2020, and that if there are no new waves of the epidemic, which cannot be ruled out either. The Chinese economy will also lose a few percent, as it depends on both the American and the European, but, nevertheless, at the end of the year will show minimal growth. Thus, it turns out that China will lose "a little" GDP, and the US and the EU with "a lot". Much more than the 200 billion for which Beijing is obliged to buy products in America, according to the January phase one trade agreement. China dealt a blow not only to the United States, but also personally to Donald Trump, who initiated a trade war with China two years ago.

Now Trump's chances of not being re-elected are low, and the president himself makes statements every day that blames not only China, but everyone who succeeds in all mortal sins, forcing the media, Americans and everyone in the world to take his words less seriously. Thus, much for both the United States and the global economy will depend on Trump's further actions. Understanding that he will lose the election, Trump can go all-in, and what this will mean for China, the USA and the entire world economy, I do not want to think about it ...

As for the ordinary macroeconomic statistics, the first quarter GDP and several indexes from the IFO Institute will be published on Monday in Germany, which reflect business optimism, economic expectations and an assessment of the current situation. GDP in Germany should fall by 2.3% in annual terms and this is one of the smallest reductions in the European Union. Unfortunately, this will not be of particular importance for the euro currency. In general, in the eurozone, a reduction of at least two times higher is expected in the first quarter.

There will be no important publications in the European Union on Tuesday; several minor issues, such as the housing price index or consumer confidence level, will be released in the United States. Wednesday, May 27, will be even more boring, as the calendar of macroeconomic events on this day will be empty in the United States and the EU.

More or less significant data will begin to be available to traders on Thursday. An inflation report will be released that day in Germany, which may slow down in May to 0.6% in annual terms. However, we have repeatedly said that the inflation rate at this time does not have much significance for market participants. In the United States on this day there will be data on orders for durable goods, which, after the disastrous March values, may continue to decline. It is expected that the main indicator will lose another 18.1%, and orders for goods excluding transport will be reduced by 14%. Next, annual GDP data for the first quarter will be published and, according to forecasts, the indicator will decrease by 5%. The next report on applications for unemployment benefits may show an additional two million unemployed Americans, and the total value of secondary applications may exceed 25 million.

Reports on retail sales in Germany, inflation in the European Union and personal income and expenses of the American population are planned on the last trading day of the week. These reports are frankly secondary in these conditions and are unlikely to cause any reaction from traders. Not a single important and significant speech has been planned for this week, however, the heads of the central banks of the EU and the US have acted quite recently, market participants are fully aware of their possible actions and plans. No one is going to lower bets in the near future.

Exchange Rates 25.05.2020 analysis

Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair:

The technical picture of the EUR/USD pair shows that the price worked perfectly and rebounded from the upper border of the side channel near the $1.10 level. Thus, now we expect continued downward movement with the target near the lower border of the channel, the 1.0750 level. All support and resistance levels will be rebuilt on Monday, but even without this, the goals are now clear and obvious. The most interesting thing is that despite the euro's decline, the Ichimoku indicator has not yet formed a new sell signal. However, this is the normal behavior of technical indicators in flat conditions. They are late and generate false signals. There may be several turns of upward correction during the downward movement to 1.0750.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Uitgevoerd door Paolo Greco,
Analytische expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020
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