Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair tried to resume the downward movement twice on Monday, August 10. However, on the whole, trading was held in a narrow price range with little volatility (only 60 points were passed from the high to the low of the day) on the first trading day of the week. Thus, novice traders fell into the so-called "flat" (sideways movement), which a priori is very difficult to work with. Sellers did not find the strength to further pull down the EUR/USD pair during the day, however, they resumed the downward movement closer to the end of the day. True, it is extremely inconvenient to work with it now. Firstly, it is not clear whether the flat has ended? Secondly, there were no macroeconomic events on Monday, but they will not happen on Tuesday, so the pair's sluggish and weak movement may persist tomorrow.
From a fundamental point of view, there is nothing to analyze on Monday. There were no economic news or reports on the first trading day of the week. There were only "funny stories" from the US President Donald Trump, who at the end of his presidential term set out to make decisions on major issues without the approval of Congress. However, this information should not be of interest to novice traders, since it does not directly affect the behavior of the currency pair. In general, the fundamental background is still not in favor of the US dollar, since the situation in America is very difficult. Both epidemiological, political, and economic. The latest reports on Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment gave a bit of optimism to buyers of the dollar, but, as we can see, without news support, the downward movement has essentially stopped. So this is a very delicate moment. It is not recommended to take unnecessary risks.
Neither the European Union nor the United States will have any macroeconomic data worth paying attention to on Tuesday, August 11. Therefore, if the market does not receive any information "bomb" during the day, most likely, the pair will continue a rather weak movement with a downward bias. This means that the pair could fall by another 20-30 points at the end of the day, but there will most likely be "fluctuations" again (frequent changes in the direction of price movement within a short period of time) during the day. Thus, we advise novice traders to trade carefully and with caution.
The following scenarios are possible on August 11:
1) Buying the pair at this time is irrelevant, since the price was unable to overcome the 1.1903 level. Thus, traders are now simply deprived of buy signals. Based on this, we do not recommend trading the pair up. We still believe that quotes should fall at least to the 1.1696 level, and only after that it will be possible to speculate about a possible resumption of the upward trend.
2) Selling the currency pair is still more promising now, at least with the target of 1.1696 (previous local low). However, there are about 60 points to this goal, and with the current volatility, it will be difficult to pass even these 60 points. Thus, in the current situation, we recommend not to trade the pair until the morning (since the probability of a trend movement is even lower at night), and wait for a new down MACD signal to open new short positions in the morning and on Tuesday.
What's on the chart:
Support and Resistance Price Levels - Levels that are targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines - channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction it is preferable to trade now.
Arrows up/down - indicate when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.
MACD indicator is a histogram and a signal line, the crossing of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners in the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
