The pound sterling received a triple blow on Thursday against the background of coronavirus anti-records. Disappointing macroeconomic reports were published in Britain, which was in the "red zone", falling short of the forecast values. An unpleasant bonus to all this was Brexit, which again reminded of itself in a negative way. As a result of this pressure, the GBP/USD pair significantly weakened its positions, losing more than 250 points and falling to the base of the 31st figure. However, it is still too early to write off the pound: as practice shows, the pound is recovering quite quickly after such fundamental blows. For example, on Friday, the "bear holiday" has come to an end: buyers have taken the initiative and are gradually regaining their lost positions.

Let's start with the UK macroeconomic reports. It is necessary to immediately make a reservation: the fact that the indicators came out worse than forecasted does not at all negate the fact that the British economy showed significant growth relative to the failed second quarter. Thus, in the third quarter, the volume of British GDP increased by 15.5% in quarterly terms against the forecast of growth by 16%. In September, the country's economy grew by only 1.1%, while experts expected to see this figure slightly higher by at least 1.8%.

This result, on the one hand, indicates positive trends: against the background of quarantine restrictions, which were not fully lifted during the third quarter, the British economy managed to show good growth. On the other hand, the recovery process was not as breakthrough as experts expected. For this reason, the pound did not become the beneficiary of Friday's release – the published result disappointed investors with its "red color".

The same can be said about the rest of the releases. Industrial production was expected to rise by almost 1.5% in September (on a monthly basis), but de facto rose only by 0.5%. The processing industry should have shown similar dynamics (+ 1.1% m / m), while in reality the indicator barely rose above zero (+ 0.2%). We were only pleased with the construction industry where the indicator grew to almost 3%, while the forecast growth was up to 2.1%. But the service sector has traditionally demonstrated weak growth. This is understandable, given the collapse of the tourism and restaurant business in Britain: in September, the British authorities have already begun to tighten quarantine restrictions.

Thus, the release of Thursday's data could not provide support for the pound, despite the actual growth of the main indicators. Experts expected to see stronger numbers, so the market's reaction to the published numbers was negative. In addition, the projected economic downturn in the fourth quarter will offset any gains in the third quarter amid the latest "coronavirus trends".

So, over the past day in the UK, the coronavirus was found in 33,470 people. This is a record figure. The previous anti-record was set almost a month ago - on October 21 - with a daily increase of 26,000. Commenting on these numbers, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that despite hopes for a vaccine, "the British have not yet emerged from the coronavirus forest." Let me remind you that on November 4, the British government introduced a new lockdown in Britain, approximately until the beginning of December. At the moment, restaurants and pubs, gyms, and shops that do not sell essential goods have stopped operating in the country. However, the rate of spread of the incidence is not slowing down - on the contrary, the country sets new records for both the number of cases and the number of deaths from the consequences of COVID-19. This indicates, that quarantine restrictions in Britain will either be extended until January or will be tightened in the near future. A combined option is not excluded.

Brexit also exerts some pressure on the pound. At the moment, the parties are continuing negotiations, so traders are quite sensitive to rumors related to this process. There is no official news about any progress (or regression), so the market is forced to draw its own conclusions based on the available fact. For example, investors negatively interpreted the fact that the parties do not have time to agree on the framework terms of the deal before the deadline, which was set at the end of the October EU summit (November 15). It is known that the negotiators took a few more days (according to rumors - until next Thursday), but it is not known at what stage the negotiation process is - which issues have already been agreed and which have remained unresolved. But the very fact of prolonging the negotiations had a negative impact on the pound sterling.

Nevertheless, the GBP/USD bears failed to develop the southern trend. After a two-day fall, the pound recovered and gradually gained its lost points. The fact is that the information vacuum that has formed around the negotiation process plays not only against the pound but also in its favor – no matter how paradoxical it may sound. After all, traders are well aware that final negotiations are underway, and if the parties still find a common denominator, they will enter into a deal. In this case, the pound will shoot up, regardless of the" health " of the dollar or other fundamental factors. Therefore, traders do not risk playing against the sterling as the pendulum may swing in one direction or the other.

Thus, in my opinion, the pound has passed another "stress test". Despite the pressure of many fundamental factors, it has not collapsed below the 1.3100 mark paired with the dollar, and on Friday, it is trying to turn the situation in its favor. All this indicates the priority of long positions on the GBP/USD pair, with the main goal of 1.3270 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). Stop loss can be placed not at the "round" mark of 1.3100, but slightly lower, at 1.3080 (the upper border of the Kumo cloud coincides with the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the same timeframe).