EUR/USD – 1H.
On November 27, the EUR/USD pair continued the growth process and eventually consolidated above the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1967). Thus, the growth process can now be continued even higher, in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). The upward trend line continues to characterize the current mood of traders as "bullish". Fixing quotes below it will work in favor of the US currency and some fall in the direction of the levels of 100.0% (1.1920) and 76.4% (1.1879). The closer the markets get to the New Year, the more opinions appear that the European currency is heavily overbought and generally has no special reason to grow against the US dollar. Even when the information background is empty, any currency can grow by 150-200 points. This is the usual market noise. However, the euro currency has been growing for more than six months without major corrections. Meanwhile, there are a lot of problems in the Eurozone. For example, the EU budget for 2021-2027 is currently blocked by Poland and Hungary, which do not approve of the new rule of law principle, which allows the European Commission to reduce funding for countries that do not comply with this principle. Simply put, the EU is insisting on full democracy within each country of the EU. And in Poland and Hungary, there are suspicions that local ruling parties are trying to establish control over the media and courts, as well as do not support migration policies and infringe on the rights of sexual minorities. However, Poland and Hungary will not voluntarily withdraw funding, especially in the face of a pandemic, so they vetoed the adoption of the new principle, the recovery fund, and the budget.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes have consolidated above the upper border of the side corridor and also continue the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). A rebound of the pair's rate from this level will work in favor of the US currency and some fall, and a close above it will work in favor of further growth towards the next corrective level of 200.0% (1.2353).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair continue to grow in the direction of the corrective level of 323.6% (1.2079). However, more attention should now be paid to the lower charts.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair, but in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On November 27, there were no economic reports in America and the European Union. Thus, the information background was extremely weak, which did not prevent traders from actively buying euros.
The news calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - ECB President Christine Lagarde will make a speech (10:30 GMT).
On November 30, in America, the calendar of economic events is empty again. The European Union will host a speech by Christine Lagarde, who can tell traders something new.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
There are almost no changes in the latest COT report, and the new report has not yet been released. Over the last two reporting weeks, the number of long contracts in the hands of the "Non-commercial" category of traders decreased by 4.5 thousand, and the number of short contracts - by 0.5 thousand. During the last reporting week, speculators opened approximately the same number of long and short contracts. Thus, in general, the changes are insignificant. The mood of speculators became a little more "bearish", but again slightly. There are even fewer changes in other categories of traders. The most important thing I would like to note is that the mood of major players is not becoming more "bullish", which means that the COT report does not indicate a resumption of the upward trend now. The euro currency has been growing in recent weeks, however, we need to see what the new report shows.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro currency with targets of 1.1920 and 1.1879, if it is fixed under the trend line on the hourly chart. Purchases of the pair can be opened after rebounding from the trend line on the hourly chart with a target near the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.2027).
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
