15.01.202115:12 Forex Analyse & Reviews: EUR/USD: plan for the US session on January 15 (analysis of morning trades)

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.2144 and recommended to act from it. Sellers of the euro will focus on a breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.2144. A breakdown and test of this level from the bottom up will form a new signal to open short positions and open a direct road to yesterday's low of 1.2113. On the 5-minute chart, I highlighted the area where the breakdown of the level of 1.2144 occurred, after which the pair returned several times and tested this range from the bottom up, which led to the formation of a signal to sell the euro. The target was the support of 1.2113, in the area of which the downward movement of the market stopped. In the afternoon, the focus will be on this level.

Exchange Rates 15.01.2021 analysis

During the US session, we are waiting for several important fundamental statistics, so in the case of good indicators, the pressure on the euro will only increase. The task of the bulls will be to form a false breakout in the support area of 1.2113. In this scenario, I recommend counting on long positions with the main goal of returning and consolidating above the resistance of 1.2144, which will limit the downward potential of the pair at the beginning of next week. A break of 1.2144 will open a straight road to a maximum of 1.2179. However, I recommend opening long positions above the level of 1.2144 only after testing it from top to bottom on the volume. In the event of a further decline in the euro and a lack of activity on the part of buyers in the area of 1.2113, it is best to abandon long positions before updating new local lows in the area of 1.2080 and 1.2042, from where you can open long positions immediately on the rebound with the aim of an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

Sellers of the euro coped with the task for the first half of the day and managed to break below the support of 1.2144. Now a lot will depend on their behavior at the level of 1.2113. Good fundamental statistics on the US economy will only increase pressure on the euro and open a direct path to new monthly lows. A break and consolidation below 1.2113 with a test of this level from the bottom up, similar to the morning sale, will lead to a decrease in EUR/USD to the support area of 1.2080 and 1.2042, where I recommend taking the profits. If the bulls manage to "pull the blanket" on their side, the formation of a false breakout near the resistance of 1.2144, where moving averages and playing on the bears' side, forms a signal for opening short positions. I recommend selling the euro immediately for a rebound from the maximum of 1.2179, based on a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day.

Exchange Rates 15.01.2021 analysis

Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for January 5 recorded the growth of short positions and the growth of long positions. Buyers of risky assets continue to believe in a bullish trend even despite the decline of the European currency at the beginning of this year, which will allow new major players to enter the market. News that vaccination against the first strain of coronavirus continues in Europe will also support euro buyers. Pressure on the euro will be exerted by isolation measures and the current quarantine in many European countries. Thus, long non-commercial positions rose from 222,443 to 224,832, while short non-commercial positions jumped to 81,841 from 78,541. Due to the larger increase in short positions, the total non-commercial net position decreased from 143. 902 to 142,991 weeks earlier. The insignificant change in the delta at the beginning of the year hardly indicates a change in the tactics of buyers of the European currency, who expect the euro to resume growth after the lifting of quarantine measures in the EU countries.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates a further decline in the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1. 2113 will lead to a new wave of decline in the euro. If the euro rises, the upper limit of the indicator will act as a resistance in the area of 1.2170.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Uitgevoerd door Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytische expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021
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