While many traders are preparing for tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting, the talk around the safety of the AstraZeneca vaccine is only gaining momentum. Today, the European Medicines Agency will hold a press conference on the safety of this manufacturer's vaccine, during which various options for its use in the future will be considered. Let me remind you that the EMA has launched an investigation into the safety of the AstraZeneca vaccine against COVID-19 after Germany, France, Italy, and other EU countries suspended its use due to isolated cases of blood clots.
However, some immediately came to the defense of AstraZeneca. Karl Lauterbach, a German lawmaker, and professor of health and epidemiology at the University of Cologne, said that it is necessary to continue vaccinating people with AstraZeneca, and that it is unacceptable that the vaccine is completely removed from the market due to the detection of some anomalies in its use. "I will get the AstraZeneca vaccine," said Karl Lauterbach. "Because even taking into account the isolated incidents that we now know about, the benefits are much greater than the damage that can occur if vaccination is refused in the absence of alternative options."
According to the World Health Organization, almost 80% of the vaccines produced so far have been used in only 10 countries. Distribution by country concerning the number of people vaccinated with at least one dose: UK - 36%, China - 25%, USA - 21%. By the way, today the Chinese authorities approved another vaccine against COVID-19, developed in their country. This is the fifth vaccine made in China.
As for today's fundamental statistics, the reports released were extremely good, which leaves hope for more active recovery of the European economy after the coronavirus pandemic. However, the data did not have much impact on risky assets, as many traders have been patient and are waiting for the results of tomorrow's meeting of the Federal Reserve System. The statements made by the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will clarify the Central Bank's policy regarding the bond-buying program and the fight against rising yields in the near future. The changes made may seriously affect the direction of the EURUSD pair.
According to the data, the index of sentiment in the German business average continued to grow in March this year. The ZEW survey indicates that the indicator of economic sentiment in March rose much more than expected - to 76.6 points from 71.2 points in February. Economists had expected a reading of 74.0 points. The index of the current economic situation in March also jumped, immediately by 6.2 points, to -61.0 points. ZEW noted that optimism continues to grow, and experts expect a more widespread recovery of the German economy after the lifting of quarantine and restrictive measures. It is for this reason that many investors are not in vain betting on the continued growth of inflation and higher interest rates in the future. As for the report on the eurozone, there is also an increase in business sentiment. According to the data, the index rose by 4.4 points to 74.0 points, and the indicator of the current economic situation was -69.8 points.
The data on inflation in France and Italy did not surprise traders much, as there was no strong discrepancy with the forecasts. A report from the Insee statistics office shows that consumer prices in France rose slightly more in February 2021 than originally estimated. Inflation rose by 0.6% in a year, as in January, while initially it was expected to grow by 0.4%. Every month, consumer prices remained unchanged after rising 0.2% in January. Core inflation fell to 0.6% from 1.0% in January, as prices of manufactured goods fell by 0.4%, and growth was only due to energy and food.
In Italy, consumer prices also rose in February, in line with the initial forecast. A report from statistics bureau Istat said that the consumer price index was at an annual rate of 0.6% in February, after rising to 0.4% in January. Core inflation excluding energy and food prices rose to 0.9% in February from 0.8% in the previous month.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the problems for buyers remain in the resistance area of 1.1940, which has not yet been consolidated above today. Only a breakdown of this area will lead to a new wave of strengthening of risky assets to the level of 1.1990 and open a direct road to the area of 1.2050. The resistance of 1.2110 is even higher. It will be possible to talk about the return of pressure on the euro only after the bears push through the support of 1.1895, which will lead to a breakdown of the lower limit of the current ascending channel from March 8 this year. Only after that, we can expect an immediate sell-off of EURUSD to the minimum of 1.1840, which will open the possibility of a return to the base area of the 18th figure.
