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07.05.2021 01:20 PM
Analysis of EUR/USD on May 7. What will the US Nonfarm data be like?

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On the four-hour chart, the wave pattern is still completely understandable and does not require any additions. The expected wave 2, which is part of the new upward trend section, is likely to be already done. Thus, if the current wave pattern is correct, then the quotes of the instrument will continue to rise as part of the construction of wave 3. If this happens, the instrument will reach the 23rd mark in the next few weeks, and possibly even higher. In general, the current wave marking does not raise any questions and there are even no alternative options. Everything is very simple and clear. Thus, the current situation for the Euro currency is very favorable for trading. It was already mentioned that in order to successfully work on wave analysis, one does not need an accurate markup, but a clear and simple markup. This condition is now being met.

Today is the last trading day of the week and a lot of traders want to quickly finish trading and leave for the weekend. However, today is quite an important day for both the pound and the euro, and especially for the dollar. In the EU, the ECB President, Christine Lagarde, will make a speech again However, her speech is unlikely to deal with pressing issues of the economy or monetary policy. For example, Lagarde did not address these issues yesterday in her speech and so, it is also likely that the same thing will happen today. Therefore, the markets are likely to focus on American economic statistics, which will be quite important.

The April unemployment rate may decline from 6% to 5.8% and this will indicate a continued recovery in the labor market. Today, the Nonfarm Payrolls report will also be released, which also has a direct relationship to the state of the US labor market. The forecast for the number of new jobs is very high – almost 1 million. If it coincides or is exceeded, then it is quite possible to expect an increase in demand for the US currency. However, it should be recalled that the wave pattern is more important now, so the dollar may make a slight increase, but it is unlikely to have a strong impact on the wave outlook. If the actual value of the report is lower than the forecast, then the growth of the quotes may continue today, while the US dollar will resume its decline. In terms of other reports, we can consider the wages report in the United States, as well as the report on the economy from the European Commission. Perhaps, this data will also affect the movement of the instrument. However, it is believed that the main movement (upward) will not be disturbed, and the wave pattern will not tolerate any changes.

According to the analysis, an upward trend is still expected to form. At this time, the construction of the correctional wave 2 or b could have already been done. Thus, it is now suggested to buy the instrument again with targets located near the 23rd mark and higher, counting on the formation of a wave 3 or c. There are no reasons to revise the current wave pattern yet.

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The wave pattern of the upward section of the trend is still quite complete and so, the five-wave form is not going to get complex yet. But the part of the trend, which started to form immediately after it, took a corrective and quite complete form. If the current wave pattern is correct, then the construction of a new upward trend section has begun and its first wave has just ended.

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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