After all the troubles associated with the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the US currency fell under a wave of sales. And the latest macroeconomic statistics, primarily yesterday's data on US GDP for the second quarter, caused market participants to be disappointed. After all, according to the repeated statements of the US Central Bank, monetary policy will remain soft until the economy fully recovers from the consequences of COVID-19, and macroeconomic statistics will not come out positively. However, a lot has already been written about this in previous articles. Thus, in this review, we will pay attention to the technical picture.
First of all, I would like to note that weekly and monthly trading ends. Thus, the day is especially important. On the weekly chart, the pair is trading in an upward trend. However, it has somehow calmed down, and trading is increasingly taking place in the consolidation mode for quite a long time. Despite all the troubles and misfortunes that have recently befallen the US dollar, it holds up very well in pair with the "Australian." After the "Aussie" corrected slightly below the level of 23.6 Fibo from the global growth of 0.5510-0.8007, this Fibo level became a real stumbling block since it acts as a strong resistance and does not let the quote go higher.
On the other hand, the orange 200 and black 89 exponential moving averages, which converged at 0.7340, act as strong support and do not let the quote go lower. If we briefly outline the immediate tasks of the warring parties, then the AUD/USD bulls need to close the month and week above the level of 23.6 Fibo, after which a test of the strength of one of the key levels of 0.7500 will follow. As you can see, the 50-simple moving average and the red Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator are hanging right above this mark. However, before touching the mark of 0.7500, it will still be necessary to go up from the weekly Ichimoku cloud. In general, the players have enough tasks to improve the course, and they certainly can not be called easy. It is extremely important and simply necessary to break through 200 EMA from 89 EMA and gain a foothold under 0.7340. An even better option for players to lower the rate will be to transfer trading under the mark of 0.7300.
As strange as it may seem, the picture has a bearish outline on the daily price chart. In this timeframe, the pair is trading in a downward trend. The bulls barely managed to overcome the red Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator. However, all the other obstacles remain higher: the 23.6 Fibo level, the blue Kijun line, the mark of 0.7500, the orange 200 exponential, and further down the list. I want to emphasize once again that, despite all its problems, the US dollar feels quite good paired with the Australian currency. Given the technical picture on the two timeframes considered, I would not get into the market right here and now and open new positions on the AUD/USD pair. I propose to observe the behavior of the price relative to overcoming the mark of 0.7500. An accurate breakdown of this level will signal that the pair is ready to continue the rise and open up opportunities for traders to buy. If this mark cannot be overcome and bearish reversal patterns of candle analysis appear under it, this will signal opening sales.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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